Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in 63 passes as a rookie, a nice showing with two rock-solid veterans playing ahead of him. The quarterback position is a question mark, but we seem to just be scratching the surface of what Smith-Njigba has to offer from a talent perspective.
He’s an obvious dynasty fantasy football buy right now, but when it comes to redraft, how aggressive should you be in drafting the former Buckeye?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 192 (111 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 81
- Receiving Yards: 805
- Receiving TDs: 5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Smith-Njigba This Year?
I am perfectly fine betting against Tyler Lockett and in doing so, I’ve been picking up more and more shares of Smith-Njigba.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has some fun tape.
(@jaxon_smith1) pic.twitter.com/9LzgJqwqPn
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 20, 2023
As a rookie, JSN ran fewer than 28 routes per game and saw more than seven targets just once. He carved out more of a role than I projected, but his involvement ceiling was limited with a pair of proven commodities working ahead of him in an offense with some quarterback questions.
That said, he showed signs of significant growth and with Lockett’s underlying metrics trending in the wrong direction, those breadcrumbs could lead us to a feast in 2024.
Fantasy Production Compared To Expectation
- Weeks 1-4: -45.9% (56th of 56 WRs that had at least as many targets as him over that stretch)
- Week 5 bye
- Weeks 6-18: +7.6% (11th of 33 WRs that had at least as many targets as him over that stretch)
In that final segment, Smith-Njigba was more efficient than fellow rookies Zay Flowers and Jayden Reed, a pair of receivers that enter this season with the eye of most.
Is it worth an eighth-round pick to see if he can sustain that momentum into 2024? He has contingent value should DK Metcalf or Lockett go down — what happens if Geno Smith improves on those quick passes (ranked 24th of 32 qualified QBs in Passer Rating when releasing the ball in under 2.5 seconds)?
I’m more tempted to go this direction than roll the dice on a rookie receiver who will likely go through similar growing pains that Smith-Njigba experienced last season. Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, and Rome Odunze are all coming off draft boards in the same range and while they carry a greater range of outcomes, I prefer adding some reliable depth in the middle rounds before taking fliers late.
If you’re in the lookahead business – and we all are – Seattle plays three defense-is-optional NFC North teams to conclude the fantasy season. Even if you worry that the WR2 role in this offense isn’t his in September, if we get there in December, this ninth-round pick could pay significant dividends.
At his ADP, he’s a good fit for all fantasy roster builds. I think he may be a stable source of viable production sooner than later, and if he takes a big jump in Year 2, you have access to potentially league-winning upside given the limited draft capital you’re spending.