The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Smith-Njigba live up to the enormous hype, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2023 Fantasy Projection
While he’s only a rookie in 2023, I feel like I have been talking about Smith-Njigba for years and years. In a way, I kind of have been talking about him for that long because we’ve been waiting on this day to happen for about three years.
In 2021, Smith-Njigba recorded 95 receptions and set a Big Ten single-season record with 1,606 receiving yards. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave sitting out the postseason as they focused on the NFL Draft, Smith-Njigba set a Rose Bowl record with 347 receiving yards on 15 receptions and was named MVP. Not bad for a true freshman.
From a technical standpoint, Smith-Njigba checks every box. His hands and route running are phenomenal. He’s an elite separator, has sensational body control, and is extremely intelligent in how he operates over the middle of the field. He is also more physical than you might think and will be a perfect slot option in Seattle. But is that enough?
Truth be told, fantasy managers have been spoiled by rookie wide receivers over the last several years. It’s no longer the sophomore breakout. Guys like DK Metcalf, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and even Chris Olave last year have set the bar so high for what is expected of a highly touted rookie receiver, especially ones who receive first-round draft capital and are the clear WR1 of their class.
You might be disappointed if you’re expecting that out of JSN in 2023. While Seattle needed additional depth, they possess one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. They will take priority over JSN. Overall, Seattle will look very similar to last year in how they operate.
Still, the linchpin of the entire equation is whether or not Geno Smith can replicate what he did last year when he led the whole league with a 69.8% completion percentage and placed sixth in EPA+CPOE.
Unlike some of the other breakout wide receivers, Smith-Njigba was not brought in as the No.1. He is the No. 3 who can be the No. 2 either down the line in 2024 or this year due to an injury.
Because of this, my initial projections don’t have a Smith-Njigba taking the substantial leap in value like other rookie receivers have done in the past.
Despite the immense talent, I currently have Smith-Njigba catching between 60 to 63 passes on 95 targets for approximately 675 yards and five or six touchdowns. For at least 2023, JSN will likely bring value closer to a WR4 than a league-winning asset on draft day.
Should You Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba This Year?
When it comes to rookies, especially those who have been pumped up for years, their ADP will likely see massive fluctuations from draft to draft. All it takes is one person to be higher on them than the rest to shake things up.
Smith-Njigba likely will receive some of this unstable draft capital as managers debate the upside of his talent against the realistic ceiling the landing spot provided.
Based on mid-August ADP reporting, Smith-Njigba is going off the board as roughly the WR35 with an ADP of around 85-90, which would place him at the beginning of the eighth round in a 12-team draft.
Based on the upside, I understand where Smith-Njigba is going that high, but I wouldn’t say I love the value.
If anything, the best receiver to draft in Seattle, based on the ADP, is Lockett as the WR30. He is going a handful of spots ahead of Smith-Njigba (74) and is coming off another 1,000-yard season as the WR13 overall and 17th in points per game.
So long as Metcalf and Lockett are healthy, JSN isn’t going to touch these numbers, and I don’t think he should get drafted as close to Lockett as he is.
If this ADP holds, I likely won’t have very many shares of Smith-Njigba in 2023 redraft leagues, as I would prefer to draft Lockett or Jordan Addison, Brandon Aiyuk, Treylon Burks, and even Kadarius Toney, who are all going within the same value range.
This is a case of loving a player but not loving the situation. Smith-Njigba might burn managers who take him too high this season.