Last season, Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was trapped behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As a rookie, he was unable to break through. With Lockett nearing the end of his career, the time is nigh for Smith-Njigba to make his move. Can he overtake Lockett and become a fantasy football starter in Year 2?
Should You Select Jaxon Smith-Njigba at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 103rd Overall (WR46)
- Challenging Rookie Year: Smith-Njigba had a difficult rookie season, unable to break through with Metcalf and Lockett ahead of him. Despite this, he showed flashes of potential that make him an intriguing option for his sophomore season.
- Opportunity for Growth: With Lockett nearing the end of his career, Smith-Njigba has a real chance to take on a more significant role in the Seahawks’ offense. His 17% target share needs to increase for him to become a consistent fantasy starter.
- ADP Analysis: Smith-Njigba is currently being drafted as WR46, No. 103 overall. This ADP reflects a mix of risk and upside, with the potential for Smith-Njigba to overtake Lockett and become a reliable fantasy option.
- Final Verdict: While there are reasons to be cautious, Smith-Njigba’s talent and situation make him a worthwhile gamble at his current ADP. If he can secure a larger role, he could provide significant value for fantasy managers.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Smith-Njigba is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills
45) Rome Odunze, WR | Chicago Bears
46) Curtis Samuel, WR | Buffalo Bills
47) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | Seattle Seahawks
48) Jameson Williams, WR | Detroit Lions
49) Jordan Addison, WR | Minnesota Vikings
50) Jakobi Meyers, WR | Las Vegas Raiders
51) Tyler Lockett, WR | Seattle Seahawks
52) Christian Watson, WR | Green Bay Packers
Smith-Njigba’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
As the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, there’s no denying Smith-Njigba’s total numbers were a disappointment. He caught 63 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns. He reached the 525-yard threshold we need to see from rookie WRs. At the very least, we can’t completely write him off just yet.
At the same time, Smith-Njigba’s performance wasn’t exactly encouraging. Despite being the top wide receiver in his class, his 8.8 fantasy points per game were eighth among rookie receivers.
While none of this is particularly good, it is relatively easy to explain. I will preface this by saying I absolutely despise making excuses when players do not perform up to expectations.
More often than not, the reason players underperform is because they aren’t that good. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to do so for JSN because of the unique situation he found himself in.
As a reminder, Jordan Addison stepped onto a roster with an opening at WR2 and Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Zay Flowers joined an already successful Baltimore Ravens team and was immediately the best receiver on the team. Tank Dell didn’t have much standing between him and the Texans’ WR2 role. Smith-Njigba joined a roster with two veteran receivers who have been high-level NFL starters for the past half-decade.
Smith-Njigba never had a chance to unseat Metcalf as the Seahawks’ top target-earner. However, he could have done more to push a 31-year-old Lockett whose best years are clearly behind him. JSN’s 17% target share absolutely must go up this season for him to have a chance to be a fantasy factor.
That’s not the only thing that needs to improve, though. Smith-Njigba’s 6.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was outside the top 90 wide receivers. Perhaps that is the type of usage JSN’s talent commands and that’s all he will be. It’s too early to tell.
The good news is that Smith-Njigba did flash potential. He only got to play one game without one of Metcalf or Lockett (it was Metcalf sitting out), but in that game, Smith-Njigba was efficient, catching four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. It’s the smallest of sample sizes, but it gave us a glimpse as to what JSN might be able to do in a starting role.
Is Smith-Njigba a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Whether JSN is a worthwhile pick at his ADP comes down to whether you believe in his ability to overtake Lockett as the Seahawks’ WR2. Lockett isn’t about to just disappear. However, Smith-Njigba needs to be able to prove to Geno Smith and the Seahawks coaches that he deserves to be targeted ahead of the 32-year-old WR.
The entire team would also benefit from Smith playing more like he did two years ago. JSN ran 64.3% of his routes from the slot last season. He doesn’t really overlap with Lockett or Metcalf. If Smith plays better, there’s a world where Metcalf can be a fantasy WR2 while both Lockett and JSN are WR3s.
Hoping your late-round pick becomes a WR3 is not exactly what we want in fantasy, though. We need more upside than that, and I do believe JSN is capable of providing top-18 numbers if things break right.
Historically, sophomore WRs have been very good investments. More recently, we’ve been forced to pay for natural progression in advance. That’s not the case with Smith-Njigba. JSN carries a WR46 ADP, No. 103 overall. I have him ranked at WR43. That late in drafts, small differences in ranking are largely meaningless. It comes down to personal preference.
There are definitely reasons to be pessimistic about what he can do. However, I am more inclined to take a chance on a 22-year-old WR who is just one year removed from being viewed as the most talented wide receiver of his rookie class.