Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an underwhelming rookie season, due largely to being trapped behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Can JSN ascend to the WR2 role this season? What would that mean for fantasy football? Is he a worthwhile Best Ball target?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
One thing I really hate doing is making excuses for when players fail to meet expectations.
Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. He caught 63 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns. His 8.8 fantasy points per game were eighth among rookie wide receivers. Simply put, that’s not good enough.
Of course, we’re not shutting the door on Smith-Njigba becoming a fantasy WR2 just yet. This isn’t a Quentin Johnston situation where he failed to reach 500 receiving yards.
JSN SZN 🔥
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores a TD to give the #Seahawks the lead late 🤯pic.twitter.com/mzigy2JFQI
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2023
I would say there’s no sugarcoating JSN’s rookie year…but there actually is. Jordan Addison stepped onto a roster with an opening at WR2 and Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Zay Flowers joined a Ravens team and was immediately the best receiver on the team. And Tank Dell didn’t have much standing between him and the Texans’ WR2 role.
JSN, meanwhile, joined a WR room that already featured Metcalf and Lockett. It was always going to be a challenge for him.
Now, to be fair, Lockett was 31 years old last year. Smith-Njigba still should’ve done better than a 17% target share.
One potential excuse for JSN is the way the team used him. Smith-Njigba’s 6.1 aDOT (average depth of target) was outside the top 90 wide receivers. The counterpoint to that would be perhaps that is the type of usage JSN’s talent commanded. It’s too early to tell.
What we do know is that Smith-Njigba did flash potential. He only got to play one game without Metcalf, but in that game, Smith-Njigba was efficient, catching four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. It’s the smallest of sample sizes, but it gave us a glimpse as to what JSN might be able to do in a starting role.
Should You Draft Smith-Njigba in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
For Smith-Njigba to break out in 2024, two things need to happen. First, he needs to overtake Lockett as the WR2.
Lockett is not done just yet, but he declined considerably last season. At 32 years old, it’s time for him to take a step back into a more complementary role. But that can only happen if JSN forces it to.
Second, Geno Smith needs to play closer to the level he did in 2022. JSN ran 64.3% of his routes from the slot last season. He doesn’t really overlap with Lockett or Metcalf. If Smith plays better, there’s a world where Metcalf can be a fantasy WR2, while both Lockett and JSN are WR3s.
Fantasy managers probably want more than a WR3 finish from Smith-Njigba, but given his cost in Best Ball drafts, that would be enough to justify drafting him. Anything more would be a bonus.
Ultimately, JSN is 22 years old. He’s certainly not in the greatest situation possible, but he’s in an above-average one. We should be more optimistic than not.
It’s a much better idea to take a shot at a 22-year-old receiver improving than a veteran with an established ceiling suddenly breaking it. JSN is fairly priced, and fantasy managers should be fine with taking some shots on him.
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