If you’re planning to make prop bets or any other wagers on season-long NFL player production, here are our suggested 2022 Javonte Williams prop bets based on his likely statistical range. Williams remains wrapped in another potential timeshare with veteran RB Melvin Gordon. All prop bets are based on FanDuel over/unders.
Top Javonte Williams prop bets for 2022
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on 10 years of NFL research analyzing the correlation between preseason expectations and outcomes. Age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these assessments.
Javonte Williams 2021 recap
Williams arrived in Denver in 2021 as an immediate contributor and likely future bell cow. But the 28-year-old Melvin Gordon went toe-to-toe nearly all season, and the two finished with the same number of rushing attempts (203). While Williams earned 15 more looks through the air, Gordon ran slightly more efficiently on the ground.
The veteran also outscored his 21-year-old teammate 10 touchdowns to seven, though that was partly due to a slight usage edge inside the 5- and 10-yard lines.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]And yet, Williams demonstrated the skills that led the Broncos to snag him in the second round of last year’s draft. On the ground, he led all NFL running backs in broken tackles (31) and broken-tackle rate (one every 6.5 rushing attempts). Additionally, his 43-316-3 receiving line was uniquely strong for a rookie non-starter. One might assume he has nowhere to go but up.
The Broncos were tied for 14th in rushing attempts last year. Their QBs were statistically (and arguably objectively) sub-par NFL starters. So the fact that Williams and Gordon did as well as they did is remarkable, especially when considering this team scored the league’s 10th-fewest points.
Williams’ 2022 outlook
Youth. Broken-tackle proficiency. Great hands. There’s a lot going for Williams heading into 2022. The arrival of Russell Wilson at QB should catapult this offense into the top 14, if not the top eight. That should lead to more sustained drives and more touchdown opportunities. It should help Williams elevate his already impressive 2021 rushing numbers.
And this doesn’t even factor in the likelihood that Williams takes on a greater share of the backfield workload. Now 29 years old, Gordon is No. 3 on the active all-time carries list behind Mark Ingram and Ezekiel Elliott. In the past 10 years, his RB age group (29 and older) has performed worse compared to fantasy average draft position (i.e. market expectations) than any other RB age group. Simply put, Williams is an ascending talent. Gordon is merely trying to stall the advance of time.
Javonte Williams props: rushing yards and rushing TDs
As a result, I’m all in on a breakout campaign for Williams, who realistically could eclipse 300 touches, especially if Gordon misses at least two games. Even if Williams earns only 5% more touches than last year, that would give him 258, which could push him into the top 12 in RB touches. A 12% bump, based on last year’s totals, could propel him to the top six.
In other words, it wouldn’t take much for Williams to comfortably outperform his 2021 numbers. Yet, his prop lines assume more of the same. And so I’m bullish about Williams exceeding expectations.
Regular-season rushing yards: Over 925.5
Regular-season rushing TDs: Over 6.5