As the NFL season approaches, fantasy football is upon us. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Javonte Williams’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
For some fantasy manager, it might be easy to forget how great Williams was as a rookie. Despite operating as the 1B running back behind veteran Melvin Gordon and playing in a QB-needy offense that rarely challenged defenses downfield, Williams racked up 1,219 yards and seven TDs on 246 touches.
Yes, he was a bell-cow-in-waiting. And once he had this backfield to himself, he could become the top fantasy RB, period.
Of course, all that changed in Week 4 last season, when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), lateral collateral ligament (LCL), and posterolateral corner (PLC). Suddenly, he was no longer a prospective second-year breakout star. Even his third season would be in doubt. He might not be the same player until Year 4 — or perhaps never again.
After a long offseason recovery, Williams is poised to lead the Broncos’ rushing attack in 2023. At his best, he can still be one of the best in the game. And he’s also a major risk, given the severity of last year’s injury and the possibility that Denver will play it safe with their young and talented back.
These divergent scenarios help explain why the Broncos added the proven Samaje Perine this offseason. As a complementary back, Perine could give this backfield a strong one-two punch. Unfortunately for fantasy managers who draft Williams, it also gives Denver the luxury of turning to Perine if they feel Williams has seen enough for one day.
It should be noted that Perine hasn’t handled more than 95 carries in a season since 2017. So I’m not saying he’s a threat to Williams’ positioning atop the depth chart. Instead, he’s a warning sign that the Broncos probably have no plans to overwork Williams.
Which Williams will we see? Pre-injury, he frequently dominated — if not statistically, then at least on the field. He led all starters and co-starters last year in broken-tackle rate (one per 7.8 carries). He also led all starters and co-starters the year before (one per 6.5 carries).
These are astounding stats and also not surprising. But will he be more tentative in his return to the field? Will some of what made him great wane at all?
Based on volume and production projections, Williams should be just fine. As long as he can make it through the season, 200+ touches and 1,100+ total yards are realistic, and we might expect at least five scores. But we’ll probably need to wait until at least 2024 to see him come close to his per-touch, pre-injury dominance.
Should You Draft Javonte Williams This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Williams with an ADP of RB25. Our PFN Consensus Rankings also list Williams at RB25.
It clearly signals tentativeness about his productivity and/or health. Normally, starting RBs aren’t ranked that low. Williams is an exception for good reasons. As alluded to above, he simply might not be the same player he once was — at least not yet.
That said, his current price seems too low. While it might take him part or most of the season to return to 100%, when he does make it all the way back — physically and mentally, as is customary for players recovering from such serious injuries — he could be a fantasy star.
Reaching for him a round early makes sense. At that spot, you’re hoping for 10+ good games from him, where “good” means double-digit fantasy scoring. And the possibility of some huge performances — something he’s entirely capable of — would make him a steal.