Denver Broncos RB Javonte Williams raised eyebrows with an impressive rookie season in 2021, but a torn ACL ended his second season after just four games, and we didn’t see any splash plays in his return to action last year.
Should fantasy football managers buy the dip in value now that Williams is nearly two full seasons removed from the injury? Or was last season a sign of things to come in an offense that is very limited when it comes to scoring equity?
Javonte Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
This is a complicated profile to evaluate.
On one hand, we know the talent is there. After racking up over 1,400 yards and scoring 22 times at North Carolina in 2020, the Broncos made Williams the third running back drafted and immediately gave him 246 touches. He rewarded them with 1,219 yards and seven touchdowns alongside Melvin Gordon III, catching 81.1% of his targets and flashing in a major way when in space.
Javonte Williams Touchdown!!!
His first since December 2021 😳 pic.twitter.com/z7U5Gy6jLe
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) December 10, 2023
That, however, feels like a lifetime ago.
After losing the majority of 2022 to injury, Williams returned in 2023 and didn’t look the same. None of his 264 touches last season gained more than 21 yards as his efficiency fell off a cliff.
Comparing 2023 to 2021
- Yards per carry: Down 18.2%
- Yards per carry after contact: Down 30.4%
- Yards per catch: Down 32.9%
On the surface, I’m OK excusing some of these struggles. We’ve seen running backs return to action the year following a serious knee injury and struggle only to rebound close to healthy form the next season — Saquon Barkley in 2021 comes to mind.
If that were the only tick in the negative column, I’d be all-in on Williams at his current price, one where he is not being drafted as anything more than a very low-end RB2 and, more often than not, as a flex.
This Broncos offense as a whole is a mess, and that is going to impact Williams’ bottom line. Whether it is Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, or Zach Wilson under center, the old adage holds true: “If you have multiple options, you don’t have one option.”
The Broncos ranked in the middle third of the NFL in scoring last season (21 points per game — 19th), and that seems like a ceiling for 2024.
That’s not to say Williams can’t overcome such a situation. Breece Hall played for the fourth-worst offense in 2023, while Barkley compiled counting numbers for the 30th-ranked unit. But the range of outcomes is certainly wide.
For every Hall or Barkley, there is a Rhamondre Stevenson (yards per carry down 20% and targets per game dipped 17.9% from 2022) or Josh Jacobs (scoring rate down 27.2% from 2022).
So, how do you evaluate Williams? Is his pedigree enough to overcome an unproven supporting cast? Or is his stat line going to be capped significantly until this offense has a clear direction?
With him being priced outside of the top 75 overall players, I’m willing to bite. Williams is being drafted next to the likes of Zack Moss and Jaylen Warren, two backs that come with more role concerns, not to mention far less pedigree.
At his current price, Williams won’t sink your season should he flame out, but he could be the key to a championship run if what we saw during his rookie season returns early in 2024. That is a profile I’m investing in on a regular basis and living with the results.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Javonte Williams
Williams’ 2023 season was underwhelming, finishing as the RB29 with 1,002 total yards and five touchdowns in 16 games. His efficiency has declined since his rookie year, with his yards per carry (YPC) dropping to a career-low 3.57 in 2023.
Coming off a major knee injury in 2022, Williams struggled to reestablish himself as the Broncos’ lead back. His decline in key metrics, including yards after contact, raises concerns about his ability to return to RB1 form.
Williams faces competition from Samaje Perine and rookie Audric Estimé, both of whom could cut into his workload. Perine, in particular, presents a challenge in the passing game, where he outperformed Williams in receiving yards despite similar catch totals.
Williams was the least efficient back on the Broncos’ roster in 2023, finishing behind Perine and undrafted rookie Jaleel McLaughlin in YPC. McLaughlin also produced twice as many explosive runs (20+ yards) on far fewer carries.
Despite the Broncos generating the 11th-most red-zone trips in 2023, Williams only scored five touchdowns on 264 touches, indicating potential struggles in capitalizing on scoring opportunities.
Williams is currently being drafted as the RB29 at No. 95 overall, making him a relatively low-risk investment in the eighth round. While he has the potential to provide RB2 value, his efficiency concerns and competition for touches make him a risky pick.
Williams offers potential upside at his current ADP, but his declining efficiency and competition in the Broncos’ backfield are red flags. While he could still be a valuable pick in the eighth round, many fantasy managers may prefer to target other options with more stable roles.