While he might not put up incredible weekly performances, Jarvis Landry has consistently been a valuable addition to your fantasy football team despite his ADP. However, does Landry’s 2021 fantasy outlook point to similar success, or are you better off looking for another wide receiver option?
Jarvis Landry’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Death, taxes, and Landry outperforming his consistently low fantasy ADP — a tradition unlike any other. It feels like every season around this time of year, I begin to remind everyone about Landry and what he brings to your team. You would think that after seven seasons, we would be on the same page by now. After all, he has recorded 1,100 or more yards three times and 970 or more in five of his last six seasons while averaging 136 targets in his career.
2020 was a “down year” for Landry in terms of production. In 15 games, he recorded 72 receptions (101 targets) for 840 yards and 3 touchdowns as the WR33 in PPR (12.5 ppg). But when the Browns were looking to clinch a trip to the playoffs for the first time since the Mesozoic Era, it was Landry the team trusted.
From Week 12 through 17, Landry was the WR12 in PPR (despite missing Week 16 due to NFL protocols). Over this stretch, he recorded 34 receptions on 44 targets for 369 yards and 3 touchdowns while averaging 19.2 PPR points per game. Of Landry’s four startable weeks (WR24 or above), three came during these games.
Landry’s fantasy outlook for 2021 isn’t all that hard to guess, as it’s who he has been his entire career. He will be the underneath route runner that will likely lead the team in targets but not yards. And in PPR, that’s perfectly fine. Landry has already made this work, finishing as a top-24 WR in five of the last six seasons.
He is the peanut butter of wide receivers — consistent, holds your team together, but never excites or disappoints you.
Fantasy projection
As I touched on earlier, I feel we have a reasonably solid idea about Landry’s fantasy outlook and what to expect from a projection side of things. Even with Odell Beckham Jr. back in 2021 (torn ACL), I expect Landry to lead the team in targets. Beckham is a field stretcher (13.6 aDOT [average depth of target] in 2020) where Landry is Baker Mayfield‘s security blanket underneath (8.3 aDOT).
While the Browns are not a high-volume passing offense (51.6% in 2020), they make up for it by only having two primary options in the passing game with Beckham and Landry. Together, they combined for 50.3% of the targets in 2019 (16 games) and 44.1% in 2020 (6 games).
I expect to see Landry hover around 21 to 22% target share, which would put him in line for 7 targets a game. I have Landry with 73 receptions on 112 targets for 876 yards and 5 touchdowns in my early round of projections. With these stats, he would end the season with 189.5 PPR points (11.85 ppg).
Jarvis Landry’s ADP
If we examine Landry using Sleeper’s ADP for 2021 redraft leagues, he is coming off the board as pick 95.1 in half PPR 1QB formats. According to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Landry has an ADP of 101.37. Of the three platforms, he is the best value on Fleaflicker with a 105.3 ADP.
Should you consider drafting Landry in 2021?
Well, it depends. Let me explain.
Landry’s early ADP on Sleeper was bizarrely high. That may have just been due to some strange selections. However, his value has dropped significantly since then. On Sleeper, he is still going slightly higher than the other platforms.
I find his ADP on NFC to be more in line with his current value. Now, at this range, I would be perfectly happy selecting Landry in 2021 — I believe his fantasy outlook will overproduce this selection. Anytime you can select a player that outperforms their ADP, that is a win, even if they are not week-winning players.
Once again, Landry is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 masquerading in drafts as a mid-to-low WR4. I will likely have quite a few shares of Landry in 2021 if his ADP does not change, as I am bullish on the Browns.