When you take a look back at the trade between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams that involved a swap of franchise quarterbacks Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, it is hard to spin a case that the Lions didn’t get the best of that deal.
Is Goff being chronically undervalued in fantasy football drafts entering the 2024 NFL season?
Jared Goff’s 2024 Fantasy Projection
- Total Fantasy Points: 288.9
- Passing Yards: 4,393
- Passing TDs: 27
- Interceptions: 9
- Rushing Yards: 67
- Rushing TDs: 0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of July 5. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Goff This Year?
Many were quick to write off Goff after Sean McVay decided to part ways with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Yet, all Goff has done over the last two seasons is produce a pair of top-10 fantasy seasons at quarterback.
2023: QB7 (4,575 passing yards and 32 passing TDs)
2022: QB10 (4,438 passing yards and 29 passing TDs)
One thing that vastly improved for Goff last year was the collection of talent around him. The additions of Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown has helped give this offense plenty of ways to create mismatches against opposing defenses in the passing game, which Goff consistently capitalized on last year.
Goff isn’t renowned for his exceptional arm talent, but he finished the year inside the top 10 for quarterbacks with over 400 passing attempts in both air yards (third) and yards per attempt (sixth), which suggests he is pushing the ball down the field and not just settling for checkdowns.
Goff has one of the best combinations of great pass-catching weapons and an elite offensive line to play behind in the NFL, which makes a valuable fantasy asset at the QB position with one of the highest floors in the league.
Sure, Goff isn’t going to offer much of anything as a runner — topping 100 yards rushing in a season just once in his eight-year career — but back-to-back years with 4,400+ passing yards and 29+ passing TDs make him a rock-solid low-end QB1 in fantasy football for 2024.
Goff was mostly bust-proof last year with just one game where he failed to score double-digit fantasy points in Week 14 against the Chicago Bears. On the flip side, Goff scored 19+ fantasy points on seven occasions in 2023.
The rushing production from both Gibbs and David Montgomery will cap some of Goff’s fantasy upside due to the ability of this offensive line to impose their will on opponents in goal-line situations. However, the fact this offense generates nearly four trips to the red zone per game means there should be enough scoring upside to make Goff a viable low-end QB1 option in fantasy again in 2024.
Goff’s ADP at No. 106 overall in the ninth round as the QB12 off the board is an incredibly fair price for a signal-caller with a very high fantasy floor. For some additional context, Goff is currently being selected after Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and Brock Purdy.
Goff’s lack of rushing upside makes him a bit of a boring pick on draft day, but he projects as one of the safest bets to producing top-15 numbers at the position in 2024.
