As he starts his journey with the Detroit Lions following an offseason trade, QB Jared Goff’s fantasy football outlook is at its lowest in recent years. He moves from a team competing for the NFC Championship Game to one competing for the No. 1 draft pick in 2022. Given Goff’s uncertainty and potential volatility, should you consider drafting him in fantasy in 2021 at his current ADP?
Jared Goff’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Think about this for a second. Imagine you’re a warm-weather person living in Los Angeles, loving life, enjoying the surf and sun and everything it has to offer. Then your work forces you to move to Detroit, the snowy opposite of SoCal. Now, take that and apply it to Goff’s fantasy outlook, as it’s taken a similar trajectory.
Despite finding success in his first three seasons with head coach Sean McVay (average of 4,376 yards and 27.3 TDs per season), which included a Super Bowl appearance, Goff’s time with the Rams ended this offseason after a somewhat down year.
Sure, Goff was doing well, but his last two seasons left a lot to be desired. After having the No. 1 and No. 2 offense in 2017 and 2019, respectively, they fell to No. 22 last season. Goff’s ultra-conservative nature simply was not getting it done anymore.
While he threw for 3,952 yards with 20 touchdowns, that was more of a testament to how sensational both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are. His 6.5 average intended air yards in 2020 was the fourth-lowest, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It was a continuation of a trend that had been building for years, dropping from 8.8 in 2018 to 7.8 in 2019.
It’s not to say Goff was not usable in fantasy. He was the QB13 and QB6 but saw a dip back down to QB13, followed by a QB18 finish in 2020. Due to a drop in his touchdown rate to just 3.6%, Goff was QB23 in points per game (16.9) and 32nd in points per attempt (0.38).
Can Goff succeed with the Lions?
But now, the former No. 1 overall pick of 2016 not only heads into the 2021 fantasy season without one of the brilliant minds in the NFL but finds himself surrounded by a substantial drop in talent as well.
Goff goes from a team competing for a Super Bowl and throwing to one of the best WR duos in the league to a team in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft that also leads the fantasy football landscape in vacated targets.
After losing Kenny Golladay (Giants), Marvin Jones (Jaguars), and Danny Amendola (FA), the Lions head into 2021 with a league-leading 360 vacated targets (64.1%) and 3,516 air yards (72.3%). And it’s not that the Lions brought in comparable talents in the eyes of many. The Lions’ depth chart now consists of Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Geronimo Allison.
While the offensive line might be a slight upgrade, Goff is not a QB who can work off-script. Also, given his extremely risk-averse nature, Goff will no longer benefit the same after the catchability of his playmakers to boost his numbers. Goff is a game manager, and early reports have not been glowing.
The Lions have been throwing a lot at Goff’s plate as they attempt to install their new offense under OC Anthony Lynn, but he has reportedly struggled to keep up. It’s hard to be optimistic with mere weeks until the start of the NFL and fantasy season.
While there will be plenty of volume, the Lions are unlikely to win many games, and I do not believe Goff is a QB to target in 2021 during fantasy drafts (especially 1QB formats).
Fantasy projection
The million-dollar question is what this offense will look like in 2021. The offense is Lynn’s to dictate, although Dan Campbell may have some input. Lynn has shown the ability to change his offense to fit his personnel. He finished inside the top 11 in total yards in each of the last four seasons and total points twice over that span. With that said, he did that with fringe Hall of Famer Philip Rivers and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert at the helm.
It’s likely the Lions will be somewhere around the league average in pace. While Lynn has never been one to push the tempo, they might not have a choice. Detroit’s defense was last in yards (419.7) and points (32.4) and didn’t really improve. In negative game scripts, Lynn’s offenses have ranked 14th, 13th, 31st, and 27th.
I do expect to see Goff throwing quite a bit and blow past his career average of 484.2 attempts. If — and it’s a big if — he can find chemistry with his receivers like St. Brown and especially TE T.J. Hockenson, Goff should finish above his current draft capital. The looming concern will be the lack of scoring chances, though.
Current projections have Goff slated to throw for around 610 attempts for 4,000 to 4,200 yards, with 20 to 22 touchdowns and 12 to 13 interceptions, while adding less than 100 yards rushing and a score.
Jared Goff’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Goff is currently the QB21 with an ADP of 231.6 in half PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increase in value, he rises to 122. Meanwhile, on NFC, a high-stakes format, he is going as the QB30 (186.6). On Fleaflicker, Goff is being drafted as QB30 with an ADP of 213.
Should you draft Goff in 2021?
Current ADP has Goff as the lowest-ranked starting quarterback that is not embroiled in a QB competition (Jameis Winston, Drew Lock, Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy Garoppolo) or injured (Carson Wentz).
If you are in 1QB fantasy formats, Goff is virtually undraftable. The position as a whole is far too deep. You could be the last to select your starting QB on draft day and walk away with Jalen Hurts (QB12), Matthew Stafford (QB13), or Ryan Tannehill (QB14). Barring catastrophic circumstances, Goff is never going to finish ahead of them in fantasy.
In superflex formats, Goff is a QB3 you have in case of bye weeks or potential injuries. Even in what might be an advantageous matchup where you would typically stream against a particular defense, it’s hard to imagine Goff having a more favorable fantasy outlook than your current starters. As one of just 32 starting QBs in a given week, Goff should be drafted without real expectations.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.