After two seasons as the leading receiver for the New York Jets, Jamison Crowder now finds himself in a rather crowded wide receiver room in 2021. Can Crowder carve out a sizable enough role to be a fantasy football starter, or does his season outlook suggest he should be avoided at his current ADP?
Jamison Crowder’s fantasy outlook for 2021
It would not be a stretch to say Crowder has been the best offensive player on the Jets since he arrived in 2019. Crowder, who just turned 28, has caught a total of 137 passes (211 targets) for 1,532 yards and 12 touchdowns in 28 games played.
Crowder is not a player who will ever be considered a burner or deep threat. His 7.6 air yards per target ranked 97th amongst receivers last season. What is Crowder? A high-volume player. In the 28 games with the Jets, Crowder recorded 8 or more targets in 14 games (50%) and had a 25% target share last season (ninth for all receivers in 2020).
While he ended the 2020 season with 89 targets, 46 of those came in his first four games. Crowder dealt with injuries throughout the season, playing in only 12 games and finishing as the WR39 overall but WR25 in points per game at 14.3 PPR.
The issue is Crowder is no longer the face of the receiver room now. Not only did they sign Corey Davis (to a lucrative contract) and Keelan Cole, but the Jets drafted Elijah Moore in the second round, who projects to play in the slot. Not only does this place Crowder in a competition for touches, but it also puts him in a competition for snaps in his own position, having played in the slot for nearly 75% of his NFL career.
I don’t doubt that Crowder will have a role. You don’t renegotiate a contract to keep a guy around for nothing when you could have cut him. However, he is no longer the safety blanket for his QB and could struggle for reliable fantasy production in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Deciphering a fantasy outlook for anyone on the Jets is difficult, as it is a brand new offense with a rookie head coach.
I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker.
The most important addition, however, came via subtraction when they moved on from HC Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team. Let that one sink in a bit.
Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd).
Ever since the NFL Draft, the Jets have been in love with Moore. That has continued into camp, including talks about his rapid development of chemistry with Zach Wilson.
What worries me for Crowder is that I don’t think he will have a starting role this season. If anything, it serves to hurt both his and Moore’s potential, as they share snaps out of the slot. In the end, I think Moore ends up with the majority of snaps while relegating Crowder to a WR4, possibly WR5 position on the depth chart.
Early projections have Crowder slated for 60-65 targets for 40-43 receptions, around 530 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
Jamison Crowder’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Crowder is currently being drafted at an ADP of 202.8 in half-PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, his ADP is currently 173.7. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Crowder has an ADP of 193.29.
Should you draft Crowder in 2021 for fantasy?
Looking at the ADP, there is an interesting difference in opinion. On NFC, Crowder and Moore are going back to back in ADP (174.08 to 174.67). But on Sleeper, Moore is coming off the boards 32 picks ahead of Crowder as the WR56 (140.8 to 172.1).
I side with the drafters on Sleeper, though players on NFC show a perception that both cuts into each other’s value in the end. If I were to bet on the one, I take the upside of Moore with his explosiveness and potential after the catch.
Crowder worries me for fantasy with Sam Darnold off the team, and I have difficulty seeing a path where you want him on your fantasy team in 2021.