As 2022 free agent signings continue to be announced, dynasty fantasy football managers have continued to debate where WR Jamison Crowder should land as it could substantially impact his value and those around him. With the recent news of the Buffalo Bills signing Crowder, how does this impact his dynasty value, and what should be expected for the 2022 season?
Jamison Crowder’s dynasty fantasy outlook
Do you remember when Crowder was a virtual must-start receiver in 2019 and early 2020? Boy, that feels like a lifetime ago. In fairness, three years is almost a lifetime in dynasty years. Things are different now.
After a surprising return to the Jets last season, the soon-to-be 29-year-old posted his least productive campaign with New York across 12 appearances in 2021, with just 447 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 51-of-71 receiving.
Crowder is the definition of a slot receiver, having played inside on 75% of his career snaps. He is a sure-handed, smaller-framed route runner who finds his value based on volume with a lack of upside due to a short average depth of target (7.7). There is always a role for this in the NFL, as moving the chains extends drives.
However, that is not always the case for dynasty. Ending the 2021 season as the WR64, Crowder averaged just 9.1 points per game. In his three years with the Jets, including 2019 (122 targets), Crowder has finished as a WR3 or worse in 62% of his games.
Crowder is a sneaky great move for the Bills
In terms of free agent signings of 2022 and their dynasty impact, Crowder joining the Bills is an intriguing move and one I didn’t see coming. Maybe I should have. I kept thinking we might see Jarvis Landry here, but Crowder taking the Cole Beasley role makes a ton of sense.
While I might not be enamored with Crowder’s skill set or low ceiling, you know what I do love? Josh Allen. I’ve heard he might have a future in football. We’ll find out.
How do these numbers look to you? 106, 107, 112. Still puzzled? Those are the target counts for Beasley the last three seasons with the Bills and Allen at the helm. That is also the role Crowder is going straight into.
In those seasons, especially since 2020, Beasley was under-the-radar good. Since 2019, he’s averaged 12 PPR points per game. Sure, he was a WR3+ in 74% of his games, but we’ve never viewed this position as a top-tier fantasy starter.
Nothing is stopping Crowder from matching or even exceeding this in 2022. In 2019 and 2020, Crowder was averaging 13.2 PPR points with Sam Darnold and Adam Gase, for crying out loud. In the last four years alone, Crowder has averaged nearly 2 additional yards after the catch than Beasley. Give him the same volume, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Crowder goes on to have the best year of his career.
If you are a contending dynasty team with a larger starting roster, take a shot on Crowder. In most cases, it probably wouldn’t take more than a third-round pick, which is a dart throw. All of a sudden, you might have a starting flex WR on your team who is giving consistent double-digit weekly performances.
Crowder’s fantasy impact on Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie
I don’t see all that much changing in Buffalo following Crowder’s signing. The roles on the Bills are pretty cut and dry. Stefon Diggs is the target hog, receiving 38% of the WR targets since joining the team. He is also by far the alpha and unquestioned No. 1 option for Allen.
Gabriel Davis is turning into a well-rounded No. 2. He’s no longer just a red-zone threat, having scored 13 TDs in his first two seasons. This was especially apparent in the playoffs, where Davis had an absurd outing, recording 201 yards and 4 TDs on 8-of-10 receiving in the Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Since the end of the last season, Davis has been one of the quickest risers and is viewed as a WR3 in dynasty.
If anyone does take a dip in their current dynasty value it would be Isaiah McKenzie. He spent 70% of his snaps in the slot last season, which is where we project Crowder to line up. However, the Bills run 4+ wide receiver sets at one of the highest frequencies in the NFL. So I do expect McKenzie to get his reps, but what was viewed as a potential breakout season is likely not going to happen.
As for Allen, well, he’s still Josh Allen. He’s the No. 1 ranked QB in dynasty. Only 14 times has a player scored over 400 PPR points. Allen has done it twice, and now he gets another weapon to throw to. Given his age and high-level production, Allen is as good as it gets in dynasty. I can’t put him any higher than the No. 1 spot.