Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams has seen his career sputter to begin. Can he buck historical trends and prove worthy of being the 12th overall pick? What is Williams’ 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Jameson Williams’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
Williams’ career has not gotten off to the start anyone had hoped for. Between his slow recovery from his ACL tear, his nonexistent usage as a rookie, and his six-game gambling suspension to start the 2023 season, the marks against him ever becoming a successful NFL receiver keep stacking up.
Williams was arguably the top receiver prospect of the 2022 class had he not torn his ACL a couple of months before the draft. His late ACL tear resulted in him not getting into an NFL game until Week 13 of his rookie season.
While no one was expecting Williams, with no training camp and no preseason, to take the NFL by storm, there’s really no way to spin his rookie year performance as anything other than a disaster.
Williams may have only played in six games, but his usage was never ramped up. He never ran more than nine routes in a single game. In total, he commanded just nine targets across those six games, catching one pass for a 41-yard touchdown.
Of course, Williams supporters will point to the injury and slow recovery as the reason. However, historical trends have proven that the reason behind a rookie wide receiver’s lack of performance does not matter. The simple fact is Williams failed to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie. The hit rate on Day 1 and Day 2 WRs since 2011 who fail to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie is under 5%.
Then, there’s the added issue of Williams missing the first six games of the season due to his gambling suspension. The last thing Williams needed was yet another year where he won’t be out there from the start.
On a more positive note, the Lions are perilously thin at pass catcher behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Their WR2 is currently Josh Reynolds. Their starting tight end is a rookie. It would not surprise me at all if rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs wound up being second on this team in targets. So, once he returns, Williams should get every opportunity to be the Lions’ WR2.
Should You Draft Jameson Williams This Year?
When it comes to offensive situations, it’s hard to find many better than the Lions. They project to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL. Their defense is below average, resulting in shootouts. They threw the ball 56% of the time in a neutral game script last season, which isn’t terrible. And they play fast.
With that said, I am not in the business of chasing outliers. As a rule, if you just blanket avoid all sophomore wide receivers who fail to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie, you are going to be correct nearly every time. If Williams ends up being the exception, I’m OK with missing out.
That’s especially so since anyone drafting him has to sit on him for six weeks. Then, you’re not immediately starting him in Week 7. And the Lions have a bye in Week 9. So, we’re realistically looking at Week 10 before Williams is ever going to be a real option for your fantasy team. That’s a long time for a completely unproven player.
Williams currently has a WR46 ADP, No. 128 overall. I find that outrageous. He’s going ahead of wide receivers that are more proven and more likely to be immediate contributors.
I understand the appeal. Williams is the black box. He’s the unknown. But we know the guys around him. None of them are going to be true difference-makers. In theory, Williams’ talent profile suggests he has that upside.
But it’s not all about ceiling — it’s also about the likelihood of a player reaching that ceiling. For Williams, in 2023, I believe it is a very low probability outcome and one I am not interested in chasing.
I’ve got Williams ranked at WR61. That is well below consensus. Suffice it to say I won’t be drafting Williams anywhere this season. And I would not advise anyone out there to draft him, either.
