It’s been a difficult start to Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams’ career. The former first-round pick hasn’t come close to living up to his draft capital. Entering his third NFL season, Williams has no more excuses. He’s in the best situation of his career, so will he either break out or fade into oblivion? What should fantasy football managers do in 2024 drafts?
Jameson Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
It’s very easy to make excuses for why Williams hasn’t done anything of note over his first two seasons. As a rookie, he missed the first 11 games due to his recovery from a torn ACL. He was unsurprisingly eased back into action, never playing more than 25% of the snaps in a game.
Entering his sophomore season, it was very easy to fade Williams because he was suspended for the first six weeks for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. Williams was ultimately reinstated a week early and played in the team’s remaining 12 games.
Not being able to play the first month of the season certainly contributed to Williams’ slow start, but it doesn’t explain his inability to command more than a 9.8% target share. Of course, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a dominant target hog, but the Lions did not have a clear WR2. There was room for a third option behind ARSB and Sam LaPorta. Williams was supposed to be that guy. He wasn’t.
Williams was a pure burner. His 15.6 aDOT (average depth of target) was fifth in the league, but he was only targeted on 17.4% of his routes run. His 1.5 yards per route run was 56th in the league despite averaging 14.8 yards per reception.
Proponents of Williams can argue he never got going, as he was never a full-time player. His highest single-game snap share was 68%. I don’t see how that can be viewed as a positive. How is it that a first-round talent was unable to earn targets and playing time ahead of journeyman Josh Reynolds?
Williams had three games with double-digit fantasy points last season. In all three of them, he scored. In games without scoring, his best performance all season was 8.7 fantasy points. Overall, he averaged 6.7 points per game.
Heading into the 2024 season, Williams still has his fair share of supporters. To be fair, his WR47 ADP, No. 119 overall, is not totally unreasonable. You just won’t find me among the supporters.
I was completely out on Williams after he mustered up a total of 41 receiving yards as a rookie. Yes, the injury played a big role. However, historical analysis points to that not being an excuse. His poor performance as a sophomore didn’t do anything to compel me to change my mind.
For Williams to succeed, he would have to be the ultimate outlier. If he is able to do that, more power to him. It’s not totally impossible. But fantasy football is a game of probabilities. What is most likely to happen? If Williams does defy the odds, it won’t be on any of my fantasy teams.
I have Williams ranked as my WR63. At that ranking, I won’t be drafting him anywhere, and I cannot recommend anyone else does either.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insights on Jameson Williams
Williams only has 25 catches on his NFL résumé, but fantasy football managers are enticed by his big-play upside (15.8 yards per catch for his career) and increased role as he enters his third season.
I view Williams as a player who can earn you the top seed, rather than being a league winner.
Williams could put you in a position to win your league, but with a game that could be impacted by weather against a developing defense in Week 16 (Chicago Bears) and an elite defense in Week 17 (49ers), Williams’ run of strong production could come up just short.
Right now, Williams is priced outside of the top 100, something that I don’t think has any chance of sticking come draft time. That puts him in the Rome Odunze and Courtland Sutton class of wide receivers, one that I think he’s well ahead of.
I rank Williams as my sixth-best receiver in the NFC North (ahead of the secondary Packer options and Jordan Addison), which puts him inside the top 40 at the position in ADP.
You’ll need to get the temperature of the room at your draft specifically, but I’ll be aggressively targeting Williams the moment my starting lineup is in place.