The Jacksonville Jaguars backfield is shaping up to be one of the more important stories of Week 9. Only one of James Robinson or Carlos Hyde will be relevant for fantasy football this week. With Robinson questionable to play with a heel injury, how might this backfield shake out?
Update: According to Ian Rapoport, Robinson is inactive. Carlos Hyde will start.
James Robinson’s injury status
First, we need to discuss Robinson’s injury. Last week, after playing just 8 snaps, Robinson left the game with what we thought was a sprained ankle. We later learned it was more of a heel issue, but we still haven’t received much detail on it. Robinson was described as day-to-day.
After not practicing at all Wednesday and Thursday, it looked like Robinson was set to miss Week 9. Then, on Friday, Robinson got in a limited session, and the team listed him as questionable. However, heading into Sunday the feeling around Robinson does not appear optimistic according to Adam Schefter. The Jaguars will test Robinson in pre-game warmups before making a final decision.
Will James Robinson play this week?
This question, of course, is the one you all came to this article to answer. Unfortunately, no one knows for sure. Typically, we can read the tea leaves and get an idea of which way a player is trending. The most difficult pattern to read is the DNP-DNP-LP schedule, which is exactly what we’re dealing with here.
Robinson’s ability to get in even a limited practice session on Friday gives him a chance to play. My guess — and please understand this is only a guess — is Robinson does not play but is ready to return in Week 10. I suspect we’ll get a standard 2 AM Sunday Adam Schefter tweet updating us on Robinson’s status.
What might the Jaguars’ backfield look like this week?
Hyde is fully healthy, so we know he’s playing. That removes one variable from the equation. There are only two possible scenarios: Robinson and Hyde both play, or just Hyde plays.
If Robinson is out, Hyde will be the lead back and likely a three-down player in this offense. Last week, Hyde played 66% of the offensive snaps and was involved both on the ground and through the air. He carried the ball 9 times for 32 yards and caught 6 passes for 40 yards.
If Robinson plays, then things get a little dicey. There’s no way Robinson will be 100% if active. I would still expect him to be the lead back, but we have no way of knowing how many more snaps and touches he will cede to Hyde.
Fantasy managers will have to pay close attention to pre-game reports on how Robinson looks if he’s active. If Robinson plays, both players are risky starts. The Jaguars’ backfield is not prolific enough for a split backfield to be fantasy-viable.
Should fantasy managers start Robinson or Carlos Hyde?
The ease with which I can answer this question depends entirely on Robinson’s status. If Robinson is out, Hyde becomes a solid floor-based PPR RB2. Head coach Urban Meyer has shown no interest in pulling his starters in blowouts or just giving up and going home.
Last week, when the Jaguars were down 24 points, the team was still calling real plays even though they weren’t really trying to score. That’s not what you want to see as a Jaguars fan, but it’s great for fantasy managers. It allowed Hyde to rack up garbage-time checkdowns and pad his fantasy stats. The Bills are 2-touchdown favorites, so we could see a similar game script play out yet again.
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If Robinson is active, he is the lead back. However, we would have no way of knowing how healthy he is or the potential chances of him aggravating his heel injury mid-game. Given JRob’s performance this season, he’d likely be difficult for fantasy managers to bench, particularly on a week where so many players are injured or on bye.
Meanwhile, Hyde becomes almost unstartable. If you do start Hyde despite Robinson being active, you’re almost banking on an aggravation. Hyde’s season-high snap share with Robinson active is 34%. Fantasy managers will have to wait for confirmation either from Schefter or when inactives are announced at 11:30 AM ET before making a decision.