The Buffalo Bills shifted to a far more run-first-centric attack when Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in the middle of the year last season. That meant James Cook produced the best fantasy football finish of any Bills running back since LeSean McCoy in 2017.
Can fantasy managers rely on Cook as a rock-solid RB2 with RB1 upside again in 2024?
Should You Select James Cook at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 38th Overall (RB14)
- Breakout 2023 Season: Cook finished as the RB12 in full-PPR formats in 2023, amassing 1,122 rushing yards on 237 carries and 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions, along with six touchdowns. His RB12 finish was the best by a Bills RB since LeSean McCoy in 2017.
- Increased Volume Under Joe Brady: After Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11, Cook’s volume increased significantly, averaging 17 carries per game, up from 12 carries per game in Weeks 1-10. This bump in usage helped solidify his role as the team’s lead back.
- Strong Efficiency Metrics: Cook’s 5.6 yards per touch ranked among the top backs in the league, demonstrating his ability to maximize his opportunities. He also ranked inside the top 10 at the position in both rushing and receiving yardage.
- Concerns About Physicality and Red-Zone Usage: Cook’s elusive ratings were solid but not elite, and he struggled with physicality, ranking outside the top 20 in broken tackles and yards after contact per attempt. The addition of Ray Davis, a powerful short-yardage back, could limit Cook’s goal-line opportunities.
- Potential Impact of Ray Davis and Josh Allen: With Davis likely to assume the short-yardage work previously handled by Latavius Murray, and Josh Allen’s significant role in the red zone, Cook’s touchdown potential could be capped, limiting his ceiling in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Cook’s current ADP of No. 38 overall as the RB14 makes him a strong value as a quality RB2 option in the fourth round. His role in a high-powered offense and his solid per-touch performance suggest he has the potential to outperform this ADP with some positive touchdown regression.
- Final Verdict: Cook is a reliable RB2 with RB1 upside, particularly in PPR formats. While his red-zone usage is a concern, his role in the Bills’ offense and his efficiency make him a smart pick at his current ADP, with the potential to deliver strong value in the fourth round.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for James Cook
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
30) Jaylen Waddle, WR | Miami Dolphins
31) Nico Collins, WR | Houston Texans
32) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
35) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
36) Jalen Hurts, QB | Philadelphia Eagles
37) Patrick Mahomes, QB | Kansas City Chiefs
38) Alvin Kamara, RB | New Orleans Saints
39) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
40) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
James Cook’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
After years of Devin Singletary flirting with a true fantasy breakout season, Cook delivered the goods with an RB12 finish in full-PPR formats with 1,122 rushing yards on 237 carries and 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions while finding paydirt six times in 2023.
Cook’s role last season broke the mold of Bills RBs not seeing enough volume to crack the conversations of a weekly top-10 finish, seeing 49 more carries than Singletary’s highest-usage season back in 2021.
After the Bills decided to part ways with offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after the team’s 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 10, Cook’s volume of work jumped considerably, with Brady taking over play-calling duties.
Cook’s 2023 Per-Game Rushing Production Splits:
- Weeks 1-10: 12 carries for 62 yards (RB16)
- Weeks 11-18: 17 carries for 72 yards (RB10)
The bump in overall usage didn’t necessarily create a ton of extra yards per game, but it certainly helps raise his fantasy floor if he retains his leading role in 2024.
His rushing and receiving yardage at the RB position both ranked inside the top 10, and he was among the top backs in the league with 5.6 yards per touch, which is impressive considering his above-average volume last season.
James Cook put up a big-time performance for the Bills in their W over the Chiefs 🔥 @thegreat__4 @BuffaloBills pic.twitter.com/RfqoyEGSXM
— NFL (@NFL) December 11, 2023
On paper, Cook’s receiving metrics look solid, with his 1.67 yards per route and 10.1 yards per reception, both ranking inside the top 10 at the position, but his six drops last season came at brutal moments and cost him a minimum of two TDs in 2023.
His elusive ratings were good but not great. He ranked outside of the top 20 at the position in broken tackles (eight) and yards after contact per attempt (2.0), both below the league average for starting backs last season.
Cook is definitely a slippery runner, but he doesn’t bring an overwhelming amount of physicality to his game, which makes the selection of Ray Davis in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft worth mentioning.
Davis wakes up in the morning and chooses violence. He has a great feel for sifting through traffic in the trenches before sticking his foot in the ground and bursting through the line of scrimmage. His powerful 211-pound frame at just 5’8” makes him ideally built for short-yardage work, which was evident during his days at Kentucky with 20 total TDs last season.
A noteworthy 13% of Latavius Murray’s 79 carries came inside the 5-yard line last year. Furthermore, Murray’s 11 carries on the doorstep of the goal line ranked 14th in the NFL last year, seven more carries than Cook saw inside the five in 2023. Just for good measure too, Bills QB Josh Allen ranked seventh in the league with 14 carries inside the five-yard line.
I mention those crucial fantasy carries in the red area to suggest Davis could assume the work we saw from Murray in this offense for the 2024 season. This, combined with Allen’s rushing TD production, will likely limit Cook’s work inside the 10-yard line.
Is Cook a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Cook enters the year as the leading ball carrier of a traditionally high-powered offense that generates a plethora of yardage and scoring opportunities. Could the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason impact this? Sure, but I don’t expect Allen to regress significantly in 2024.
Cook is currently coming off the board at No. 38 overall, the RB14 off the board. He is extremely fairly priced as a quality RB2 option in the fourth round.
The concerns about his usage near the goal line are valid, but his solid performance on a per-touch basis over the first two years of his career suggests his leading role is secure and could outperform his ADP with some positive TD regression in an offense that utilized him in a lead-back fashion over the back half of last season.