The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB James Cook.
Is James Cook Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Cook was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play against Kansas City.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit James Cook in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
I expect every star to carry a pretty reasonable ownership number this weekend, but if there’s a player priced at $5,500 or higher that gets comparatively overlooked, I think James Cook is as good a bet as any.
Last week wasn’t pretty, but it never was going to be. The Ravens are one of the best run defenses in the league, no matter the metric you look at, and they bottled Cook up (5.9% of his carries gained 10+ yards, down from his season rate of 10.1%).
It happens.
This is a very cherry-picked example, but I’m going to use it because it proves my point. I’m not suggesting that it’s predictive — but it’s worth considering for a moment.
Najee Harris, 2024:
- Week 16 at Ravens: 0.47 points per touch and 11.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
- Week 17 vs. Chiefs: 0.67 points per touch and 23.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
I think we can agree that Cook is a superior talent in a superior offense when compared to Harris, giving me even more optimism that last week’s limitations are the exception (BAL: first in opponent rush first down rate; KC: 23rd) rather than the norm.
I believe that part of what has made Josh Allen better this season when compared to last is the attention this ground game demands. This season, his passer rating from within the pocket is 8.8 points higher than in 2023 and his yards per completion is up nearly a full yard — defenses are less comfortable in attacking Allen due to Cook’s production, thus resulting in more comfortable pockets and better production in those spots.
Cook is the straw that stirs this Buffalo drink — Allen is the container that holds it all. These may be famous last words, but on a per-dollar basis for building a DFS roster, I prefer Cook to Saquon Barkley.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
James Cook’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Cook is projected to score 19.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 20.5 rushing attempts for 106.6 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. It also includes 1.8 receptions for 37.8 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
James Cook’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
