James Conner was largely an afterthought last season. Yet, he delivered a near-RB1 season for fantasy football managers.
Now another year older and with added backfield competition, Conner’s price remains low once again. Will he be a value pick for the fourth consecutive year?
Should You Select James Conner at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 59th Overall (RB19)
- 2023 Recap: James Conner delivered a near-RB1 season in 2023, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game despite being largely overlooked in drafts. He finished as the RB13 overall, thanks to a strong finish to the season where he averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game from Weeks 13-18.
- Efficiency and Volume: Conner was highly efficient last season, posting 5.1 yards per touch and ranking in the top 10 for evaded tackles per touch. His 71.3% opportunity share was ninth in the league, indicating that his production was driven by both volume and efficiency.
- 2024 Outlook: At 29 years old, Conner faces added competition from rookie Trey Benson, who brings a different dimension to the backfield with his speed and explosiveness. While Benson is unlikely to take over immediately, his presence introduces additional risk to Conner’s workload.
- ADP Value: Conner is currently being drafted as the RB19, 59th overall. His ADP reflects the concerns about his age and competition, but it also presents a potential value if he can maintain a significant role in the Cardinals’ offense.
- Final Verdict: Conner’s floor may be low, but his ADP accounts for that risk. Given his proven ability to produce when healthy, Conner is worth drafting at or below his current ADP. He’s a solid pick for fantasy managers looking for a reliable RB2 with potential upside.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for James Conner
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
For years, many fantasy managers have scoffed at the notion that Conner was a good running back.
To quote Taylor Swift, “It’s me. Hi. I’m the problem, it’s me.”
I’ve never been a Conner guy. I didn’t buy the talent, I didn’t buy the workload, and the health was a concern, too, as Conner has never played a full season. Yet, he keeps producing.
Conner has averaged at least 15.4 fantasy points per game for three straight seasons. Outside of a subpar 2020 campaign, Conner’s worst year since his 2018 breakout was 14.6 fantasy points per game in 2019. He’s been an underappreciated, reliable option for over half a decade.
Last season, Conner was often dismissed as a quintessential “dead zone” running back. He was 28 years old with a known ceiling on what was projected to be one of the worst offenses in football. Without significant touchdown upside, how was Conner going to be anything more than a volume-based RB2, at best?
The thing is, for half the season, that assessment was largely correct.
Conner started the year hot, scoring 12.0, 16.6, and 19.6 fantasy points. But over his next five games, he failed to score more than 8.3 fantasy points. Those five games also spanned nine weeks, as Conner missed time with an injury (as he does).
Great way to end 2023 for James Conner 💪 pic.twitter.com/Hgp74RvOjD
— NFL (@NFL) January 1, 2024
Once fantasy managers sufficiently wrote Conner off, he decided he was going to become a league winner. To quote JoJo, “You know it’s just too little, too late.”
While Conner’s stellar close to the 2023 season likely didn’t help many fantasy managers, it certainly comes into play for how to evaluate him this season. From Weeks 13-18, Conner averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game. Those are elite RB1 numbers.
For further context, Conner averaged 18.2 points per game in his eight contests with Kyler Murray under center compared to just 11.9 points per game with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune starting.
Perhaps most important for assessing Conner’s value going forward is whether his 15.5 points per game was due to raw volume or because he was actually good. His 71.3% opportunity share was ninth in the league, which certainly helped.
But Conner had the most efficient season of his post-Pittsburgh Steelers career. He averaged 5.1 yards per touch (16th in the league). He was ripping off long runs, with 6.3% of his carries going for 15+ yards (seventh). His evaded tackles per touch rate was inside the top 10, and he even created 3.64 yards per touch (16th).
Sometimes, you need to admit when you were wrong about a player. I was wrong about Conner.
Is Conner a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
So far, I’ve mostly painted a positive picture of Conner. But there is cause for concern.
For starters, Conner is 29 years old. There are a lot more fantasy-relevant running backs age 28+ than normal. However, that doesn’t make them any less scary.
Conner could easily fall off a cliff this season. The Cardinals are well aware of this possibility. That’s certainly part of the reason they spent a third-round pick on Trey Benson, making him the second-highest-drafted running back of the 2024 class.
Benson brings a different dimension to the running game than Conner. With a 4.39-second 40-yard dash time and a 98th percentile speed score, Benson is a home run threat in ways Conner just isn’t.
Given that their talents don’t overlap, Benson has the potential to significantly eat into Conner’s workload, if not take his job entirely.
It’s not necessarily likely, and definitely won’t happen right away, but it’s an added risk with Conner’s profile that did not exist last season.
With all that said, Conner’s ADP reflects these concerns. Despite finishing as the overall RB13 last year, Conner is going as the RB19. Yes, his floor is you drop him midseason. But very few running backs outside of the top guys are safe.
Conner could lose a chunk of his volume, regress to a low RB2, and still be a fine pick at his ADP. I am right in line with consensus on Conner, ranking him as my RB20.
Given his No. 60 overall ADP, Conner is worth drafting, especially if he falls below his ADP.