Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner had a renaissance season in 2021. As a result, the Cardinals fully committed to him as their lead back. With Chase Edmonds gone, what can fantasy football managers expect Conner’s outlook to be in 2022, and should they target him at his ADP in fantasy drafts?
James Conner’s fantasy outlook for 2022
I must admit I really didn’t think Conner had this in him. After a lackluster 2020 season where Conner averaged 12.7 PPR fantasy points per game, he looked to restart his career on a one-year deal in Arizona.
Conner started off as the 1B to Chase Edmonds’ 1A. For the first half of the 2021 season, Conner was a pure two-down grinder entirely dependent on touchdowns.
From Weeks 1-8, Conner averaged a sub-50% snap share and just 11.5 ppg. In Week 9, Chase Edmonds sprained his ankle on his first carry of the game. From that point forward, Conner reestablished himself as an elite fantasy force. He averaged 23.6 ppg and was the overall RB2 over the remainder of the season. From Weeks 9-14, Conner averaged an 85% snap share.
It wasn’t just that Edmonds got hurt; it was that Conner completely assumed Edmonds’ work. The Cardinals used Conner as a three-down back. This was a player that did not run more than 8 routes in a single game over the first two months of the season. From Week 9 onward, Conner averaged 17 routes run per game. He even had a 9-reception game in Week 14.
All of the above, taken without context, points to Conner as a surefire first-round pick as an elite fantasy running back in 2022. He’s in one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL tethered to a young, talented quarterback in Kyler Murray. Of course, it’s never that simple.
Once the Cardinals started using Conner as a three-down back, one of his main downfalls reared its ugly head: injury. Conner replaced Le’Veon Bell in 2018. Since (and including) that season, Conner has missed 14 games, including two last season. Can he hold up for the 2022 season?
How the Cardinals’ depth chart impacts James Conner’s fantasy projection for the season
The Cardinals have made it abundantly clear that Conner is their guy. Since Edmonds signed with Miami, the Cardinals did three things at running back. They gave Conner a three-year extension, drafted Keaontay Ingram in the sixth round, and signed Darrel Williams. All of these actions suggest they are fully invested in Conner as a three-down back in 2022.
With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games and Christian Kirk in Jacksonville, the Cardinals are likely to lean on Conner in the passing game as well. He very well may be second on the team in targets over the early portion of the season behind Marquise Brown. His only backfield competition is in the form of Williams, Ingram, and 2020 seventh-round pick Eno Benjamin.
James Conner should see a heavy volume
Conner’s volume is extremely safe. When on the field, he is going to be amongst the league leaders in opportunity share. After Edmonds got hurt last season, Conner averaged 4.8 targets per game. He’s extremely likely to miss games this season, but if he can limit it to only a handful, Conner will be an RB1.
The thing with Conner is it won’t necessarily be pretty. As great as Conner was for fantasy, he remained incredibly inefficient as he has been most of his career. Conner averaged a career-low of 3.7 yards per carry. Although in his defense, he did average just 1.2 yards before contact. However, the Cardinals did very little to address their offensive line this offseason.
Fantasy managers looking to draft Conner in 2022 fantasy football drafts need to acknowledge they’re relying on volume and touchdowns. Conner scored 18 times last season and averaged 22 opportunities per game after becoming the lead back. If he can maintain that usage while staying on the field, he will be an RB1 this season.
Conner’s ADP for 2022
Despite Conner’s overall RB7 finish, his ADP is in the middle of the third round of 12-team leagues. He’s being drafted as about the RB15. The last time Conner’s ADP was anywhere near this high was after his breakout 2018 season filling in for holdout Le’Veon Bell. Conner wound up breaking down the following year, averaging 14.6 ppg in just 10 games.
Fantasy managers clearly have 2019 on their minds as his ADP is not late-first round like his 2021 performance and projected 2022 role would suggest it should be. As a result, Conner has the potential to be an absolute smash at his ADP. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Conner remains the RB15 but also sitting 25th overall, half a round earlier than his ADP.
At the same time, Conner has never been able to hold up for a full season as a feature back. Historically, drafting inefficient 27-year-old running backs in the third round has been a bad bet.
As long as Conner stays healthy, though, it’s difficult to envision him completely busting at his ADP. At worst, he will perform slightly worse than where he’s going. If you’re willing to assume the risks that come along with drafting Conner, there’s certainly room for upside with where he’s going in drafts.