Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner has spent the past two seasons, and probably his entire career, proving people wrong. Coming off back-to-back RB1 finishes, is Conner once again a value? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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James Conner’s Fantasy Outlook
At 28 years old, entering his seventh NFL season, fantasy managers should rightly be concerned that a drop-off is coming for Conner. He’s never been efficient, with just a 4.9 career yards-per-touch average.
The Cardinals also project to be the worst team in the NFL. They will be without Kyler Murray for some, if not all, of the season. And Murray’s replacements will be the combination of 37-year-old Colt McCoy and rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune.
The thing about Conner, though, is he just perseveres. Conner was supposed to regress last season. His 17.2 PPR fantasy points per game in 2021 was an outlier. He couldn’t do it again. He was too old, too slow, and not good enough at football.
Instead, Conner put together another strong season. He averaged 15.4 ppg, finishing as the RB9.
Conner obviously comes with serious concerns about his offensive situation. But, at this point, talent should no longer be an issue. He averaged 3.1 yards created per touch last season, 14th in the league.
He’s also proven to be a very capable pass catcher. His 11.6% target share was 11th in the league last season and will likely only increase following DeAndre Hopkins’ departure and the shift from the extremely mobile Murray to the less mobile McCoy/Tune.
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Conner also checks the opportunity box. In fact, his opportunity is probably as secure as you are going to get in a fantasy running back.
Look at this team’s depth chart. Behind Conner, they have Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty’Son Williams. That’s a sophomore sixth-rounder, a seventh-year former UDFA journeyman, and a 2020 UDFA with 35 career carries.
We’ve seen Conner post multiple games with over a 90% snap share. Given the absence of weapons on this offense aside from Hollywood Brown, Conner should see all the work he can handle.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Conner at His ADP?
The concern with Conner is he’s described as the exact type of “dead zone” running back we should avoid in fantasy drafts. I have to push back on that, at least a little bit.
For starters, Conner’s ADP is RB22, No. 60 overall. He’s going at the tail end of the dead zone. A slight drop in ADP and he will be outside of it.
With many younger players, progression is baked into ADP. For Conner, regression is baked in. Even if the Cardinals are as bad as expected, it’s difficult to see Conner not at least managing around 12 ppg, which is what we expect from a low RB2/high RB3.
My projections have Conner carrying the ball 256 times for 1,027 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 58 receptions for 421 yards and 2.2 touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 15.4 ppg and an RB14 finish.
Of course, these projections assume 17 games, which is something Conner has never done in his career. But even if I’ve overshot him a bit, I would gladly take 12-14 games of 14+ ppg production at cost.
I have Conner ranked as my RB25, and quite frankly, it feels too low. I understand the risks for a guy like Conner. The bottom could completely fall out from under him. However, we’ve seen no indication that will happen and have every reason to believe the volume will still be there.
This comes down to cost. I have no interest in paying up for a 28-year-old RB on a bad offense. But as long as the price remains this low, I’m very much interested in drafting Conner this season.