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James Conner’s Fantasy Outlook: Can He Hold Off Trey Benson in 2024?

After finishing as a top-20 fantasy RB for three straight years with the Cardinals, what can fantasy managers expect from James Conner in 2024?

Some members of the fantasy football community have been ready to write off James Conner ever since he joined the Arizona Cardinals in 2021. Unfortunately for those managers, they’ve missed out completely on some very productive seasons from the veteran running back.

After the team invested Day 2 NFL Draft capital in rookie RB Trey Benson this offseason, what is the fantasy outlook for Conner heading into 2024?

Should You Draft James Conner in 2024?

If you haven’t been paying attention for the last three years, Conner has been a far better fantasy producer for the Cardinals than he ever was for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Need proof? Just look at the numbers.

Conner’s Fantasy Production With the Cardinals

  • 2023: 1,040 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 receiving yards, 9 total TDs (RB18)
  • 2022: 782 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 8 total TDs (RB19)
  • 2021: 752 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 375 receiving yards, 18 total TDs (RB5)

Conner’s Fantasy Production With the Steelers

  • 2020: 721 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 215 receiving yards, 6 total TDs (RB27)
  • 2019: 464 rushing yards, 34 receptions, 251 receiving yards, 7 total TDs (RB33)
  • 2018: 973 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 497 receiving yards, 13 total TDs (RB7)

Considering the shortcomings of Arizona’s roster entering the 2023 campaign and having to produce with Joshua Dobbs under center for the first half of the season, Conner’s 201.5 fantasy points in just 13 games actually made him the RB13 in full-PPR formats on a points-per-game basis (15.5).

Conner’s 5.0 yards per carry, 2.0 yards after contact per attempt, and 27 broken tackles were among some of the best marks for running backs with 200+ carries in 2023. His contact balance and burst suggest there was no fall-off in his performance last year at 28 years old.

In fact, Conner was far more efficient as a ball carrier last season than he was in his prior two years with Arizona — watching his yards-per-carry average rise from 3.72 to 4.27 to 5.0 over his three years with the Cardinals.

Back to Dobbs for a moment: This Arizona offense was expected to struggle last year, with Kyler Murray’s timeline to return under center being a bit unclear heading into the season. This uncertainty, paired with the lack of elite options in the passing game, led to the Cardinals generating just 44 trips to the red zone all season, which was 27th in the league in 2023.

After adding the dynamic receiver prospect from Ohio State — Marvin Harrison Jr. — to the mix and Murray potentially being even better after being a full year removed from his torn ACL, it’s within the range of outcomes to see some more offensive production in 2024.

Yet, here comes the bad news we’ve all been waiting to discuss… How will Benson impact Conner’s fantasy value in 2024?

From a sheer talent standpoint, Benson is a quality three-down prospect with ideal size (6’0”, 216 pounds) and speed (4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine) that fit the criteria to project as a feature back in the NFL.

I could see a scenario where Conner starts the year as the primary ball carrier, with Benson rotating in with around 10 touches per game. That role could then expand for Benson as the season progresses with Conner in the final year of his contract.

Ultimately, I do see Benson posing a legitimate threat to Conner’s lead-back status this season. Yet, I find it unlikely that Conner will ever be completely phased out of the offense in 2024, which should give some fantasy managers some peace of mind selecting him on draft day.

Speaking of draft day, Conner’s ADP currently sits at No. 55 overall as the RB19 off the board. I’m not a Conner hater, but that seems a bit expensive to me when considering the threat of Benson and taking him ahead of players like D’Andre Swift, Raheem Mostert, and Zamir White.

Conner still has low-end RB2 type value, but the pitfalls to a reduced role are certainly present, giving him a riskier profile at the end of the fifth round.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for James Conner

For the sake of full disclosure, the upside in this profile is capped. Conner’s PPR fantasy points per opportunity (rush attempts plus targets) have declined by over 10% in consecutive seasons, and inefficiency would be the way for third-round pick Trey Benson (15 touchdowns at Florida State last season) to see his usage rate increase throughout the season.

I’m confident in Arizona’s upside, which makes Conner a great buy in the late stages of Round 7. Last season, running backs that saw their team win the game averaged 21.6% more PPR ppg than the losing RBs.

That stat may seem like an anti-Conner one, but would you be shocked if the Cardinals rounded out the fantasy season with three straight wins (Patriots, Panthers, and Rams)?

I’m lukewarm on Conner as a player, but with a price that has him sitting in the wrong tier for me (ADP: RB19, late fifth round), he’s a player I’m landing on with regularity.

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