James Conner crushed fantasy expectations in 2021, thanks in large part to an outsized offensive role due to numerous goal-line looks and Chase Edmonds’ injury woes. Now that the Cardinals reportedly have re-signed Conner to a three-year, $21 million contract in free agency, what is his dynasty fantasy football outlook ahead of 2022, and what impact will this move have on other key Arizona fantasy options?
James Conner’s dynasty fantasy outlook
We could have a healthy debate over whether Conner is as good as his numbers suggest. But no one can argue with this basic fact: Few fantasy running backs have racked up more fantasy points the past four seasons than Conner.
Simply put, he’s made the most of his opportunities, culminating in 847.8 PPR fantasy points in 51 games since 2018 (16.6 fantasy points per contest). That’s a wildly impressive feat for someone who entered the league as a seemingly long-term backup.
However, we must consider context when evaluating future value, beginning in 2022. Conner’s yards before contact last season was a full 2.0 yards less than that of Edmonds. It was a mind-numbing disparity that reinforces how much Conner benefited from his numerous red-zone touchdowns, including 8 from the 1-yard line.
Of course, Conner’s elite broken-tackle rate in three of the past four seasons has helped elevate his usage and production. Again, he’s earned everything he’s done. Conner’s versatility and toughness should keep him fantasy-relevant.
Concerns with Conner
But on the verge of turning 27 years old — an age when many RBs begin or continue declining — and with durability concerns (14 missed games since 2018), Conner won’t easily recapture the magic of 2021. Last season, he collected the third-most RB touchdowns, which accounted for an incredible 41% of his fantasy points.
His career-low 3.7 yards per carry, compared to Edmonds’ 5.1, remind us how easily Conner could have been phased out of this offense had Edmonds remained healthy and perhaps secured a couple more early-season goal-line looks.
As long as he’s starting, Conner should be viewed as a top 18-24 RB. But with a deceptively low floor considering his injury history and the strong possibility that he won’t be his new team’s long-term answer, he just might lose touches down the stretch if he can’t regain his former rushing efficiency.
Fantasy impact on Cardinals’ key players
With Edmonds reportedly signing with the Dolphins, the door has opened for a rookie or a free agent signee — or both. Eno Benjamin might not be the answer in Arizona. We should expect the Cards to secure a viable fallback option, knowing Conner historically has faced durability issues.
There are many fantasy points for the taking, and Kyler Murray might be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Last year, Murray, Conner, and Edmonds combined for 12 rushing touchdowns from inside the 2-yard line. Murray’s reduced role in the running game for much of the year could correct itself in 2022 if he regains his dual-threat form. Only six teams ran the ball more than the Cardinals, and no team had more fumbles (16 vs. 10 or fewer for every other team).
With DeAndre Hopkins missing a lot of time and the passing game mostly struggling after Week 2, we should expect a more pass-friendly approach this coming season, leaving room for perhaps one impact fantasy RB. But two? Not likely, especially after seeing Murray’s rushing numbers nearly cut in half compared to 2020.
The Cardinals have put all their eggs into the Conner basket. What he did in 2021 was an anomaly, not a recipe for 2022 RB fantasy success in Arizona. When we consider how many touchdowns went his way vs. Murray, Hopkins, and others, we might brace for a more effective passing game as Conner regresses.