New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston saw his attempted career revival cut short last season due to a midseason ACL tear. Even before getting hurt, Winston was well off the fantasy football radar. With three new wide receivers at his disposal, what can fantasy managers expect from Winston in 2022, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Jameis Winston’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Winston is one of the most difficult players to evaluate for the upcoming season. Bucs Winston was a quarterback capable of leading the NFL in passing yards (which he did in 2019). He was a gunslinger in every sense of the word. Winston was terrible for the Bucs due to his propensity to throw the ball to the wrong team. His 30 interceptions in 2019 were tied for the fourth-most in a single season in NFL history (since the merger).
While Winston’s recklessness was a problem for Tampa Bay, it was great for fantasy. Winston averaged between 16.2 and 20.5 fantasy points per game every year of his career as a starter. He finished as a fantasy QB1 in 2018 and 2019.
Unfortunately for Winston, his 30 interceptions in 2019 cost him his job. The Bucs moved on, replacing him with some old guy named Tom Brady. Winston spent the 2020 season as the Saints’ third-string quarterback behind Teddy Bridgewater and starter Drew Brees.
In 2021, Winston got a chance to start, but he was a completely different signal-caller. Sean Payton treated him with kid gloves and put the training wheels back on. Winston stopped turning the ball over, but he also stopped throwing altogether.
Winston attempted a career low of 23 passes per game and averaged 167 passing yards per game. He still threw touchdowns, though. Winston’s 8.7% touchdown rate was a career-high. That’s also an unsustainable rate. He’s not going to be able to average 17.2 ppg again if his volume does not increase.
Winston’s recovery from his torn ACL is going well, and he’s expected to be ready for Week 1. Can Winston return to being a useful fantasy asset in 2022?
How the Saints’ depth chart impacts Jameis Winston’s fantasy projection for the season
It’s fair to question why the Saints went so run-heavy in 2022. Their 50.3% run rate was the third-highest in the league. It’s possible it was the only way to make Winston effective. It’s also possible the Saints’ lack of receivers had something to do with it.
Last season, Winston’s top three targets were Marquez Callaway, Alvin Kamara, and Deonte Harris. It’s difficult to ask any quarterback to thrive without a true WR1 or WR2, let alone a quarterback with as many questions as Winston.
This season, the Saints get Michael Thomas back, drafted Chris Olave in the first round, and signed Jarvis Landry in free agency. Thomas and Landry may be 29 years old, and Olave is a rookie, but these three present a massive upgrade on what Winston was working with in 2021.
Winston’s ADP for 2022
Winston’s ADP is far outside of quarterbacks typically drafted in a standard-sized 12-team league. He’s being drafted as the QB23 at 183rd overall. He’s ranked as our consensus QB22.
It is possible we see a different Saints offense in 2022 — one that throws more. If that happens, Winston could emerge as a back-end QB1 early in the season. The good thing is we will know relatively quickly whether the Saints are willing to cut Winston loose. Consider Winston a low QB2 for now, but be ready to act early if we see positive signs from the New Orleans offense.