In a year where we’ve already seen guys like Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams go down with injuries, the spiteful fantasy football gods just claimed another.
Ja’Marr Chase had been dealing with a hip injury for a few weeks now. Apparently, it’s gotten to the point where he can no longer play through it. Chase is expected to miss 4-6 weeks and will likely go on IR. Let’s examine the fantasy impact this will have on Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and the rest of the Bengals’ offense.
Rapid Reaction to Ja’Marr Chase’s Injury
First and foremost, I feel pain. Physical pain at no longer being able to watch Chase masterfully play the wide receiver position in the NFL. This is shaping up to be one of the worst years for injuries to big-time players of all time.
Let’s start with how to handle Chase himself. At the very least, fantasy managers can place Chase on IR and open up a roster spot. Of course, no one you pick up will replace Chase. By the sounds of it, Chase’s hip injury is fairly serious. I am not a doctor (and I don’t play one on TV), but I am concerned we don’t see Chase again in 2022.
If he can return this season, it likely won’t be until the fantasy playoffs. For those of you with teams not confidently making the playoffs, try and sell Chase for 50 cents on the dollar (or whatever you can get that will help you now). Don’t give him away for free, but if you can get one or two every-week starters that can help with the late-season push, you should do it.
If your team is sitting pretty, it might be worth taking a shot at getting Chase cheap. But it has to be really cheap. As in cheaper than what someone who just read the previous paragraph would be willing to take to trade him away.
The Bengals are still a good team, and Chase is their franchise wide receiver. They are going to be extra careful with him. Hip injuries are tricky, especially with players falling on their hips on just about every play.
There’s a world where the Bengals play well enough to hold Chase out until the playoffs. Frankly, I see too many scenarios where Chase doesn’t come back in 4-6 weeks and not enough where he does.
Fantasy Impact on Joe Burrow
We’ve never really seen Burrow without Chase. We saw a little bit of it as a rookie, but Burrow is a much better quarterback now than he was for the few weeks he played as a rookie before tearing his ACL.
Given the talent on Cincinnati’s roster, I think Burrow will be fine. He’s been absolutely on fire the past two weeks, posting games of 32.5 and 39.2 fantasy points. Burrow has been the overall QB1 back-to-back weeks.
Not having Chase is obviously a downgrade, but the Bengals have the fortune of having another alpha WR1 in Tee Higgins. Given the lack of reliable options at the quarterback position outside of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, Burrow is still a top-five fantasy quarterback in my eyes.
Fantasy Impact on Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd
Higgins and Boyd are the biggest beneficiaries of the Chase injury. We’ve never seen either of these guys play without Chase, as this Sunday will be the first missed game of Chase’s career. However, we know what Boyd looks like when elevated to the WR2 role.
Boyd has played three games without Higgins. In those games, he averages 15.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
MORE: Week 8 Fantasy Football Rest-of-Season Rankings
Boyd was already having his best season since 2019. He’s averaging 13.6 ppg on just a 14.2% target share. That target share is bound to increase with him now operating as the WR2. With two WR1 weeks under his belt already, Boyd now elevates to an every-week startable WR2.
Higgins was already a WR1. Although he’s technically averaging a putrid 12.6 ppg, that number is misleading. Higgins left two games early due to injuries. In the five games he’s completed, Higgins is averaging 16.7 ppg — WR1 numbers. Without Chase, Higgins is Burrow’s top target. Consider Higgins a weekly top-12 option, at worst. Most weeks, you will find him ranked inside the top eight.
Fantasy Impact on Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon was already a streaming buy in fantasy. His efficiency hasn’t been great at just 4.0 yards per touch, but the volume is there.
Mixon’s 13% target share is already a career high. That should be his floor going forward — the Bengals will need to utilize him a little more as they try and make up for not having Chase.
Fantasy Impact on Hayden Hurst
In a season where tight end production feels like it’s at its nadir, Hayden Hurst suddenly becomes a bit more interesting. He likely goes from a streamer/TE2 to a weekly top-12 option.
If he’s out there on waivers and you need a tight end, you should probably grab him. At the very least, you can see how the Bengals’ offense looks on Monday without Chase and go from there.
Quick Summary of Fantasy Value Changes
- Tee Higgins goes from low WR1 to mid WR1.
- Tyler Boyd goes from fringe WR3 to mid-to-low WR2.
- Joe Mixon remains a low RB1 but now with a higher floor.
- Hayden Hurst goes from random TE2 streamer to low TE1.
- Joe Burrow remains in the QB4-6 range.