The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation. Meaning now is the time to dive into Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase’s 2023 fantasy football projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will 2023 be the year Chase secures the No. 1 overall ranking, and should he be a player you draft this year at his ADP for your fantasy football roster?
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Ja’Marr Chase’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Chase has and continues to show us everything we need to see to view him among the NFL’s elite. Truth be told, I could’ve said that same thing this time last year, and it was just as accurate. After recording 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns on 128 targets as a rookie, Chase had another great year, albeit shortened due to injuries.
Despite playing in 12 games, Chase saw six more targets in 2022 (134) than he did in 2021. He also set a new career best with 87 receptions and cracked the 1,000-yard barrier again with 1,046 yards and nine touchdowns.
We must also remember Chase missed an extra game to pad his stats due to the unbelievable Damar Hamlin situation in Week 17.
From a per-game perspective, Chase averaged 7.3 receptions on 11.2 targets for 87.2 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game, which is just bonkers numbers. He was the WR6 in points per game at 18.6 PPR.
There’s not much to say about Chase that hasn’t already been said. He’s the player we all thought he would be during his historic season at LSU, and the chemistry between him and Joe Burrow is darn near unparalleled.
Cincinnati’s offense has a 1A and 1B rather than a No. 1 and No. 2 option between Chase and Tee Higgins. They’re both Superman when the ball is in the air. Chase simply has an extra gear in the open field or when the ball is in his hands. But there’s more than enough volume to go around, which was the initial fear. However, after two seasons of elite production, those concerns have been silenced.
From a volume perspective, Justin Jefferson will once again have a noticeable leg up on Chase and could lead the whole league again in 2023 (184 – 2022).
A comfortable median projection has Chase in the 1,400+ yard range with 12+ touchdowns and nearly 100 receptions. On a per-target basis, Chase is about as good as it gets and is in a tier with Jefferson as two of the top-ranked wide receivers for fantasy football in 2023.
Should You Draft Chase This Year?
Believe it or not, the Bengals could squeeze even more out of this if the offense upped the tempo after sitting 26th in plays/minute (1.68). Cincy was fifth in passing success rate thanks in large part to Burrow, who was sixth in true completion percentage (72.8%) and EPA+CPOE, fifth in red-zone accuracy, and second in deep accuracy.
It’s one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL and had volume to match, throwing at the fourth-highest rate (66%) in 2022, which was also +7.6% above expectation (second).
The Bengals were also second in 11 personnel (3WR/1RB) at a staggering 88% on first downs, with 66% of those plays coming from shotgun. Volume nor efficiency should ever be a concern with Cincinnati so long as Burrow is in town.
A first-round pick based on ADP last season, Chase is in the same boat again in 2023, just a slight tick higher. Chase is a top-four ranked player for PPR fantasy leagues in 2023. It’s him, Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and I can make a case for Travis Kelce to be the fifth member of the elite club.
If you have a chance to draft Chase, just do it. It’s not a time to overthink it. With Chase likely getting back closer to the 7.8 YAC/r he had as a rookie compared to 4.8 YAC/r in 2022, his per-target upside is nearly unparalleled.
You won’t find someone else who has averaged 2.08 PPR/target in later rounds, that’s for sure. You want a piece of the Bengals’ offense, and there’s no better player to do that with than Chase.