One of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Chase’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Ja’Marr Chase’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Do you remember last year when every headline questioned why the Bengals took Chase over Penei Sewell? Oh, and the ones saying Chase was struggling to catch the ball because it didn’t have stripes? Those were my personal favorite. I think it’s safe to say those headlines will not be returning after Chase and the Bengals silenced the critics.
In one of the best rookie receiver seasons in NFL history, Chase was everything we could have expected and more. Despite sitting out the 2020 campaign, he didn’t miss a beat as a rookie. Playing in all 17 games, Chase was a backbreaker for NFL secondaries, hauling in 81 of 121 targets (23.7% target share) for 1,455 yards (fourth-most in the league) and 13 touchdowns (third-most).
When Joe Burrow needed a big play, Chase was his No. 1 target. The rookie from LSU was ninth in NFL among receivers in air yards with 1,617, accounting for 37.06% of the team’s total (10th-highest rate league-wide).
While he brings massive upside, Chase was a bit boom-or-bust in 2021
Chase was on the boom-or-bust side last year more than some would like to admit. That is likely to carry over into 2022 due to his role and deeper targets being completed less often.
While Chase was the WR5 in PPR formats in both overall and per-game scoring (17.9 PPR/game), he was a WR1 in just 29% of his games and a WR2 or better (top 24) in 41%. However, he only had three contests with single-digit points — when his production dropped, Chase was not ruining your week.
In comparison, Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp was a top-24 WR in 94% of his games last season (88% as a WR1). Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings was a WR1 35% of the time and cracked the top 24 in 82% of his games.
But when Chase hits, he hits big. He managed at least 19 PPR points in seven games (41%), including his 55.6-point outing against the Chiefs in Week 17 (11-of-12 receiving for 266 yards and three TDs).
As a whole, I don’t see much changing for Chase. He’s one of the top receivers you can draft in fantasy. While I give Kupp the nod as the WR1 for fantasy in 2022, it’s 50/50 between Chase and Jefferson for No. 2. Those on Team Chase will land a top-tier pass catcher who brings week-winning upside and will only get better. That is a scary thought, given what we saw in Year 1.
How the Bengals’ depth chart impacts Chase’s fantasy projection for the season
When diving into the Bengals’ depth chart, the place you have to start is the offensive line. Games are won in the trenches. In 2020, it was Cincinnati’s Achilles heel, and it cost Burrow his knee. However, the unit that will be on the field in Week 1 of the 2022 season could not be any different — and in all the right ways.
The left side of the offensive line will look similar. Holdover Jonah Williams will anchor the group at LT, while 2021 second-round pick Jackson Carman and 2022 fourth-rounder Cordell Volson will compete at left guard. The Bengals went all-in during free agency, spending $74 million on new contracts for center Ted Karras (New England), right guard Alex Cappa (Tampa Bay), and right tackle La’el Collins (Dallas).
What was a weakness is now a strength, as Cincinnati has one of the best offensive lines in football. Burrow will have more time in the pocket to process the field, and Chase will have more time to beat his coverage. That should lead to more opportunities and fantasy points.
Tee Higgins deserves more respect than he receives
Flanking Chase is perhaps one of the best “secondary” options in the NFL in Tee Higgins. To me, they are 1A/1B in the pecking order. Higgins would be the alpha on nearly every other team and is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 for fantasy. On a per-game basis, his numbers are almost identical to CeeDee Lamb’s, if not better.
In 32 career games, Lamb has averaged 7.2 targets, 4.78 receptions, 63.6 yards, 0.34 TDs, and 14.2 PPR points per game. On the other hand, Higgins (30 games) averages 7.26 targets, 4.7 receptions, 66.6 yards, 0.4 TDs, and 13.9 PPR points per contest. It’s high time Higgins receives similar levels of appreciation in the fantasy community.
Tyler Boyd will also be a factor in the offense. But he’s a clear third option, having been pushed down the depth chart by Higgins and Chase. After recording 1,000 yards in both 2018 and 2019, Boyd has not topped 850 in either of his last two seasons.
It’s the Chase and Higgins Show in the Queen City. Chase has all the ability to be one of the elite weapons in the game for years to come. He is locked in with his former college QB, and he’s playing on an ascending team coming off a Super Bowl appearance. I’m putting my money on Chase to back up his sensational rookie season and prove it was not just a fluke.
Chase’s ADP for 2022
It should come as no surprise after the season Chase had in Year 1 he would be an early pick this year for fantasy football. With the fantasy draft season on us, Chase currently has an overall ADP of 9 as the WR3 off the board — behind only Kupp and Jefferson. In our 2022 fantasy rankings, Chase’s overall ADP is 7 but comes in as the WR4 behind Stefon Diggs.
I too have Chase as my WR3 behind Kupp and Jefferson. Where I slightly differ is I have Chase as my No. 5 pick ahead of Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Najee Harris.
Now, if you prefer to start with an RB in the first, go for it. By the time you are back in the second round, players like Deebo Samuel and CeeDee Lamb could still be there. Well, maybe not in leagues I’m in. (Let’s just say that given how bullish I am on both players.)
There is also a value consideration to make. Would you rather have Chase in the first at his ADP or snag Higgins at 32 based as the WR12? This is where mock drafting really comes into play and deciding what path you like the best and how to draft the opening rounds.
Either side has its merits. Higgins has a consistent floor, whereas, Chase has ridiculous upside few can match. I’ve got a few futures with Chase leading the NFL in receiving yards, so I absolutely buy into his current value. Between the upgraded offensive line and lining up in the slot more often, few picks can win you a week as often as Chase when he gets going.