Those of us who nabbed Ja’Marr Chase in the first round of fantasy football drafts this year fully expected him to not only be a starting wide receiver for us at this point in the season but to be carrying us to a title as well.
Unfortunately, things have changed, and Chase may not be your fantasy team’s best option any longer. It all depends on your choices.
Ja’Marr Chase’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Chase has not been what we expected for most of this season and has only averaged 3.7 catches for 59 yards and an 18.75% target share over the last three games. To make matters worse, two of those games were with a healthy Joe Burrow.
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We do not yet know what to expect from the injured Burrow’s replacement, Jake Browning, after the Cincinnati Bengals‘ new starter put in a full week of practice. He knows the system, and the team seems confident in him.
The only data we have of Chase’s usage with Browning under center is his two-catch, 12-yard performance last week, although it’s worth noting that performance also included a late touchdown catch after the game was out of reach.
Chase is an immense talent, but there is so much uncertainty around Browning’s first start that putting Ja’Marr in your starting lineup in such an important week boils down to whether you have a better or more stable option on your roster.
The Bengals do face the 28th-ranked defense against the fantasy wide receivers in that of the Pittsburgh Steelers, which should be helpful to Chase, Tee Higgins, and the rest of the Bengals receiving corps.
Chase is our No. 18-ranked wide receiver in this week’s PFN Consensus Rankings. I expect Chase to drastically outperform or underperform that ranking, depending on Browning’s capabilities and his rapport with Chase.
DJ Moore’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
DJ Moore is the unquestioned top target for the Chicago Bears with or without Justin Fields under center. Moore has averaged 5.7 catches for 66 yards and an impressive 28.75% target share over his last three games. This is especially noteworthy when considering Tyson Bagent was the quarterback in two of those contests.
Moore’s numbers in his last three games with Fields are bonkers. Moore is averaging 7.7 catches for 152.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game in that span. The veteran also has an astronomical 35% target share in his last three games with Fields under center.
I believe it is time to discard the up-and-down label Moore earned in Carolina and realize that he is the path of success for the Bears passing attack.
Bears receivers have a neutral matchup this week against the 17th-ranked fantasy defense against the position, the Minnesota Vikings. We have Moore ranked as our No. 17 wide receiver in this week’s PFN Consensus Rankings, but I see him as a top-10 play this week.
Should You Start Chase or Moore This Week?
If you had asked many of us in the fantasy community this question a few weeks ago, it would have been a slam-dunk decision in favor of Chase. I believe it is still a slam dunk choice, an easy decision, but not in the same direction.
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Chase is the player to start. His projected 13.0 points include 4.6 receptions, 54.6 yards, and half a touchdown. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, and it outperforms the consensus projection for Moore (12.9 points) by the slimmest of margins.
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Moore outperforming Chase, as he has gone nuclear with Fields under center, and there are far too many question marks surrounding the Bengals offense this week.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
