While there is little questioning the production of Cincinnati Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase or Detroit Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown, their fantasy profiles may diverge.
When it comes time to choose between one or the other in fantasy football drafts, will Chase’s “hold-in” situation in training camp be a problem for fantasy managers?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Ja’Marr Chase
Chase is the WR3 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings as of Aug. 21. Chase’s numbers in 2023 were mixed thanks to unsteady quarterback play (and health).
On one hand, he reached the century mark in receptions for the first time in his career, finishing with an even 100 catches. On the other hand, Chase’s receiving yards per game (76.0) and touchdown receptions (seven) were both career-worst marks, continuing a decline since his rookie season of 2021.
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But there is context needed when looking at Chase’s numbers last season. There was a definite contrast in Chase’s numbers when quarterback Joe Burrow was on the field and when he missed the final seven games of the season with a wrist injury.
In 10 games with Burrow at quarterback, Chase averaged 10.6 targets per game, 7.1 receptions per game, and 83.3 receiving yards per game. After Burrow went down and Chase was left with Jake Browning under center, his numbers declined to 6.5 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 63.8 receiving yards per game over his final six contests.
Naturally, Chase’s fantasy production also took a big hit after Burrow was lost for the season. In his first 10 games with Burrow, Chase averaged 19.0 fantasy PPG, but in his six games without Burrow, Chase’s fantasy PPG fell to just 12.2.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown checks in as the WR6 in our consensus rankings. While he may not be viewed among the elite wide receivers like Chase, CeeDee Lamb, or Justin Jefferson, his career continues to progress quickly in that direction.
Entering his fourth season, St. Brown has improved almost all of his numbers each year of his career. Whether it is his targets (from 119 to 146 to 164), receptions (90 to 106 to 119), receiving yards (912 to 1,161 to 1,515), or touchdowns (five to six to 10), St. Brown continues to ascend which every coming season.
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St. Brown also has a loaded offensive system to work with in Detroit, so opportunities should not be lacking this season.
St. Brown averaged 20.7 fantasy PPG last season — ranked fourth among wide receivers — and improved from 2022 (16.7 PPG) and his rookie season (13.4 PPG).
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
If you compare the numbers from last season, it would appear as if St. Brown is on the rise, and perhaps Chase is on the decline. But assuming he doesn’t miss any actual regular-season games with his “hold-in,” Chase could see his numbers return to elite status with Burrow back under center.
Should St. Brown continue to see his numbers progressively improve year after year, he should find himself in the elite category of receivers, both overall and in fantasy.
However, I would give Chase another chance to show he’s among the best receivers in the game and expect his production to reflect that.