Heading into Week 4, the Detroit Lions incredibly had two RB1s. A week later, it’s fair to wonder if Jamaal Williams is a must-start for fantasy football in Week 5.
The D’Andre Swift variable
Those of you who drafted Williams at or around his RB40 preseason ADP have been playing with house money. He was expected to play second fiddle to high-flying second-year pro D’Andre Swift. Last summer, I shared with readers why I inexplicably drafted Swift in the sixth round — ahead of “starters” Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson. The answer was talent. Swift would rise to the top eventually, and I wanted him rostered when he did.
When the dust settled on the 2020 season, Swift was a top-20 fantasy RB despite appearing in only 13 games. As we’ve seen this year, he is the real deal despite playing in what was widely anticipated to be one of the NFL’s worst offenses. WR Tyrell Williams’ early-season injury was supposed to hamper a supposedly subpar passing attack.
But credit the Lions for optimizing their strengths. On a team whose best wideout is 27-year-old journeyman Kalif Raymond (five teams in five seasons), and with near-elite tight end T.J. Hockenson struggling the past two games, Detroit has capitalized on a two-headed backfield attack that has often kept defenses off balance.
Swift remains Detroit’s 1A at RB. He’s the No. 7 RB in fantasy, thanks in large part to earning the second-most targets and receptions among all backs. His exceptional production has masked an abysmal 3.4 yards per carry — more than one yard below his rookie mark.
The Lions are getting the most out of him because they don’t have a choice — 52 of Swift’s 64 touches (81%) have come while playing from behind. That’s insane, and it reinforces how much this team desperately needs their best playmaker when operating from behind.
Should you start or sit Jamaal Williams in Week 5?
That brings us to the overachieving Williams, who benefitted in his first four seasons by playing on the TD-friendly Green Bay Packers. This year, 39 of his 55 touches (71%) have come while trailing. Only 35% of his touches have come in the second half, vs. 47% for Swift. Williams, on average, has been phased out of the offense as Detroit’s hopes of victory fade.
And unlike Swift, Williams is heavily touchdown-dependent. He’s barely averaging 3 receptions for 23 yards per contest. Therefore, in order to be more than an RB3/4, he usually has to score.
So far, the odds have been in his favor — but we shouldn’t expect that to continue. Williams’ upcoming opponents include the Rams, Bears, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos. He is deceptively overvalued.
Today’s opposing Vikings defense has yielded a decent 4.2 yards per carry, but only one rushing score. This game has the capacity to break wide open by halftime. I cannot justify starting Williams as more than a TD-dependent RB3/4 because that’s what he is most weeks.
Williams enters today with a questionable tag with a hip injury. He’s expected to play without limitations, but he shouldn’t be in most fantasy lineups.