Heading into Week 13, fantasy football managers knew D’Andre Swift would be out with a shoulder injury and Jamaal Williams was out due to COVID-19. The question was whether it would be Jermar Jefferson or Godwin Igwebuike. Instead, fantasy managers have spent the past two weeks watching Craig Reynolds dominate carries. With Williams back this week and Swift possibly back as well, let’s try and decode the cipher that is the Detroit Lions’ backfield.
Update 12/26/21: The Detroit Lions have announced that D’Andre Swift is officially inactive today.
Will D’Andre Swift play?
Let’s start with the most important question of the week — Swift’s status. We haven’t seen Swift since he fell on his shoulder on Thanksgiving. Despite being mired in a lost season, the Lions declined to place him on injured reserve, suggesting they expected him to return within three weeks.
Prior to Week 15, we started hearing rumors that the Lions were going to shut Swift down for the season. Then, he opened up Week 16 with a limited practice. Swift practiced all three days and is listed as questionable. Unfortunately, I do not anticipate having any clarity on Swift’s status prior to Sunday morning inactives.
Conventional wisdom suggests Swift should play. After all, why bother having him practice with just three weeks left in the season if he’s not going to play? Nevertheless, I don’t expect to know for sure until Sunday morning.
Fortunately, the Lions play at 1 PM ET so fantasy managers will have the information needed to make a proper decision without having to roll the dice on a later start.
If Swift returns from injury, what does this mean for Jamaal Williams’ and Craig Reynolds’ fantasy value?
When Williams was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday, the wheels immediately started to turn in fantasy managers’ heads trying to figure out what the split would look like with Reynolds. Swift’s potential return makes this even more challenging to figure out.
Craig Reynolds’ fantasy value
Prior to Week 13, Reynolds wasn’t even on the team. We’ve seen the Lions do this before with random running backs off the street.
In 2019, after Kerryon Johnson went down, the Lions signed Bo Scarbrough off the street and thrust him atop their depth chart for a month. Then, when Scarbrough went down for a game, they found Wes Hills at the local thrift shop, threw him into the lead role for a game. That was the only game of Hills’ career.
More important than Scarbrough or Hills’ performances is what happened afterward. Once the starter returned, they were cast aside. Still, it’s important to acknowledge this is a different coaching staff, and Reynolds is not Scarbrough or Hills.
I fully expect Reynolds to be active and have a role after averaging 5.27 yards per carry the past two weeks. However, if all three backs are playing, I think Reynolds falls to third behind Swift and Williams.
Jamaal Willliams’ fantasy value
Williams hasn’t really been fantasy-viable all season. Outside of his anomalous Week 1 where he finished as the overall RB2, Williams finished as a weekly RB3 or better just once prior to Swift’s injury. In his two games filling in for Swift, he finished as the overall RB13 and RB27.
If Swift plays, Williams is not fantasy-viable. At best, he goes back to his old role, which wasn’t worth starting. At worst, he splits that role with Reynolds.
Even if Swift doesn’t play, it’s difficult to imagine Williams vanquishing Reynolds completely. Williams was barely startable as the lead back without Swift. He played just 47% of the snaps in Week 13. Thus, I would expect him to share work with Reynolds, making them both nothing more than touchdown hopeful RB4s.
Should fantasy managers start Swift if he returns from injury this week?
This is the most pressing question. We know Williams and Reynolds will play. Regardless of Swift’s status, they are not startable this week. The question is what kind of role will Swift have if he does play?
I have no special insight into head coach Dan Campbell’s plans. Nor do I have any idea how Swift actually feels. Given the situation with the Lions having nothing to play for, it’s hard to imagine them putting an anything less than 100% Swift back on the field.
If Swift plays, will he be the RB1 he was before he got hurt? Probably not. Williams was always involved, and now with Reynolds in the mix, I wouldn’t expect Swift to crest more than a 50% snap share. We’re probably looking at 8-10 carries and a handful of targets.
With that said, Swift is startable. Whether you start him depends on your running back situation. Consider Swift more of a low RB2 this week with a very high ceiling based on his talent and the matchup against a Falcons defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.