As he heads to a new team in the NFC North, what is the fantasy football outlook for Detroit Lions RB Jamaal Williams? Williams once again finds himself in a backup role once again. but this could prove valuable for fantasy managers. With that said should you consider drafting Williams at his current ADP?
Jamaal Williams’ fantasy outlook for 2021
After four years on the Green Bay Packers, Williams signed with the Lions and joined a somewhat congested backfield.
As a rookie, Williams was the leading back for the Packers in 2017, totaling 934 yards and 9 touchdowns. In 2018, Aaron Jones took a bigger role in the offense, with the pair splitting carries. After splitting carries in 2018, Williams saw his rushing share cut from 43% to 35% (2019) and 37% (2020) under new head coach Matt LaFleur. But that is not to say Williams lacked a role, averaging 148 touches across 2019 and 2020.
Last season, Williams had a solid outing as the change-of-pace back for Green Bay. Playing in 14 games (46% snap share), Williams received 119 carries, rushing for 505 yards and 2 touchdowns. Additionally, he racked up 31 receptions on 35 targets for 236 yards and 1 more score. What might catch some by surprise is that, despite the team drafting A.J. Dillon, Williams set a new career-high in red-zone carries with 23.
Williams’ fantasy performance in 2020
Williams finished the year as the RB38 in PPR formats while averaging 9.1 ppg. When you look at Williams’ splits, it’s an interesting data set when he was the lead back. When Jones was out in Weeks 7 and 8, Williams was the RB6 and RB8. He averaged 19.8 ppg, 23 opportunities, 108 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. Dating back to 2018 (six games), Williams has averaged 14.5 ppg on 19.3 opportunities, 85 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game.
Williams then signed a two-year deal in the offseason to join the Lions and will once again take a backup role behind second-year RB D’Andre Swift. However, Williams looks likely to be heavily involved despite the overwhelming talent of Swift.
While other “backups” get more attention like Tony Pollard or Alexander Mattison, Williams is the likeliest to lead the trio in opportunities. The Lions RB has a role rather than needing an injury to see any significant share behind Ezekiel Elliott or Dalvin Cook. Williams will not turn many heads on draft day, but he is probably a better value than we might be giving him credit for in 2021.
Fantasy projection
The Lions have had an offseason full of change. They will enter the 2021 NFL season with a number of outstanding questions. What will the new offense look like this season? Will it be a blend of Anthony Lynn’s Chargers offense and the Saints’ offense that Dan Campbell was a part of.
Lynn’s offense has demonstrated flexibility based on personnel. The strength of this offense looks set to be the offensive line and the running backs. Therefore, it is likely that we will see the Lions lean on the run game as much as possible when games are in the balance.
Still, we know this is going to be a committee approach. Swift and Williams will take the vast majority of touches, but rookie Jermar Jefferson will see some looks too. After all, Lynn has been vocal about his love for utilizing a committee approach.
Early projections have Williams getting a sizable chunk of work, seeing around 150 rushes for 645 yards and 3 touchdowns. Furthermore, he can record approximately 40-45 receptions for 290-300 yards and another score.
Jamaal Williams’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Williams currently has an ADP of 125.2 in half PPR formats. Similarly, on Fleaflicker, he is being selected with an ADP of 126. However, on NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Williams is going higher, with an ADP of 111.4.
Why you should draft Williams in 2021
After cutting Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson, the Lions enter the year with 243 vacated running back touches. Swift likely will not see 20 touches per game and seems extremely unlikely to see much above that. And it doesn’t take too much number-crunching to find a path to where Williams could surpass 200 touches on the year. That’s RB1 territory at a fraction of the cost.
While I don’t see Williams being a top-24 RB, he will have that as a floor in any game Swift might miss. There is weekly low-end RB3 upside with Williams, and he is one of the better mid-to-later-round picks in PPR. Moreover, he should be a primary target when implementing the Zero RB strategy.