The Philadelphia Eagles‘ collapse over the back half of the 2023 season highlighted some of the regression we saw in QB Jalen Hurts compared to his breakout 2022 campaign.
Despite some of his struggles through the air, Hurts’ elite rushing production still anchored his fantasy value and generated another outstanding fantasy season.
Should fantasy managers continue to project the type of exceptional dual-threat production we have seen from Hurts over the last two seasons in 2024?
Jalen Hurts’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 401.7
- Passing Yards: 3,958.4
- Passing TDs: 22.5
- Interceptions: 10.9
- Rushing Yards: 802.5
- Rushing TDs: 14.0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Hurts has always been a bit of a unicorn regarding his exceptional rushing touchdown production from the quarterback position, and 14 rushing touchdowns is still well within the range of outcomes even with the addition of running back Saquon Barkley.
Additionally, Hurts has been a consistent producer through the air, with an average of 22.5 passing scores over the last two seasons (23 in 2023 and 22 in 2022)
There is room for growth in both of these departments if Hurts can continue to evolve as a passer and the Eagles’ offense gets back on track this year.
Yet, both projected yardage totals would represent career highs. Again, I don’t find this to be an outrageous prediction, but he would certainly have to hit the ground running in new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s scheme.
Should You Draft Hurts This Year?
The move from Shane Steichen’s offensive system to Brian Johnson didn’t quite bring out the best in Hurts’ passing production last year despite many of the Eagles’ core skill position players and an elite offensive line remaining the same from the previous two seasons.
This drop in efficiency through the air occurred mostly over the last five games of the season when the Oklahoma product threw just four touchdown passes compared to five total turnovers (four INTs and a lost fumble).
Hurts’ 20 turnovers in 2023 is definitely more than just a little concerning. But in a similar fashion to Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, Hurts’ rushing production — 15 rushing touchdowns last year — continues to provide him with a fantasy floor many signal-callers simply can’t duplicate. In fact, Hurts leads the league at the QB position over the last three years with 38 rushing scores.
Sure, some of this has to do with the highly efficient Tush Push acting as a fantasy cheat code behind an elite offensive line. But it doesn’t change the fact that Hurts is as close to automatic as any short-yardage rushing threat in the league.
Now, we will have to see what impact the loss of future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce will have on this offense. But until we see Hurts fail to be a rushing touchdown machine, he is still an excellent fantasy option in any format.
Another potential concern surrounding Hurts is changing offensive coordinators for the third time in the last three years. Hurts’ best season as a passer came with Steichen as the play caller, when he dialed up 136 passing attempts on RPO concepts in 2022.
The move to Moore as offensive coordinator does bring some RPO to the table, but Moore only called a total of 62 RPOs in 2022 when he was the play caller for the Dallas Cowboys.
While there are some concerns about his jump in turnovers and lack of passing production over the final month of the 2023 season, Hurts is still an elite dual-threat option surrounded by impact playmakers on the perimeter and along the offensive line.
Draft him as your QB1 with confidence in 2024.
