Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has yet to throw more than 23 touchdown passes in a single season, but by reaching double figures in rushing scores in each of the past three years, he’s retained his elite fantasy football standing.
Is Hurts at risk, though, with Jason Kelce retiring this offseason and the acquisition of Saquon Barkley?
Should You Select Jalen Hurts at His Current ADP?
ADP:Â 30th Overall (QB3)
If you’re going with an elite quarterback, Hurts, at cost, is my favorite option. His offensive environment improved, while you could argue that Josh Allen’s (overhaul at the WR position) and Patrick Mahomes’ (Rashee Rice situation on top of the aging curve for Travis Kelce) moved in the other direction this offseason.
Hurts is coming off the board a round after Allen and a half-round before Mahomes, locking him into that late-third-round position on the board. If you’re picking at the end of Round 3, you likely opened your draft either WR-RB or RB-WR. As long as you commit to hammering those two positions in the three surrounding rounds, I have no issue with spending that draft capital on Hurts.
With plenty of talented WRs available when you’re up around the 5-6 turn (names like Jayden Reed and Terry McLaurin), I could see a WR-RB-Hurts-RB-WR-WR build paying off in a nice way to mix upside with security.
Hurts’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
While Hurts has yet to truly take that next step as a passer, the fact that he attempted 3.2% more passes per game last season than in 2022 while increasing his intended air yards and maintaining his rushing production (three straight seasons averaging over nine rush attempts per game with a rushing score at least twice every three games) is encouraging.
Continuity is also working in Hurts’ favor in the passing game, as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are back to lead the way, and Dallas Goedert is coming off of earning his most targets per game since 2019.
Was this an MVP performance from @jalenhurts? pic.twitter.com/65TQSl4b7u
— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2023
The moving piece when it comes to Hurts’ fantasy value in 2024 is the addition of Barkley.
D’Andre Swift ran for over 1,000 yards last season and was a solid option once the team committed to him. However, Barkley carries more personal upside, which could lead to more risk being absorbed by those looking to pluck Hurts off the board in the early rounds.
All six of Barkley’s rushing touchdowns last season were from seven yards or closer, making him an obvious threat to take at least some of the food off of Hurts’ plate when it comes to those short scores that help elevate his production floor.
I think it’s fair to dial back some of the rushing equity this season. For a franchise quarterback with over 500 carries on his résumé through just four seasons, this was going to happen sooner or later anyway. But it’s not as if the addition of Barkley is all bad.
Some of Hurts’ inconsistencies as a thrower have been due to the skill set of his two primary targets. Both Brown and Smith are great players and excel at making splash plays down the field. The addition of a horizontal threat like Barkley should help Hurts’ yards-per-pass attempt recover the 10% dip from last season and has me projecting a career-high in touchdown tosses.
At the end of the day, Barkley’s addition lowers Hurts’ value, but not in such a way that he needs to be removed from the top tier of signal-callers in our game.