Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson was one of the best values at the position last season. He now enters the 2024 NFL season as the clear starter on an offense that lacks an obvious second option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb. Should fantasy football managers be considering Ferguson as a late-round TE option in drafts?
Should You Select Jake Ferguson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 85th Overall (TE10)
- Solid Value in 2023: Ferguson finished as the overall TE10 last season, which was impressive given his low draft cost. However, he only averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, indicating limited upside.
- Red Zone Usage: Ferguson was a favorite target for Dak Prescott in the red zone, leading the league with 25 targets inside the 20-yard line. Although he scored just five touchdowns, there’s potential for more this season.
- ADP Analysis: Ferguson is currently being drafted as TE10, No. 85 overall. I have him ranked similarly, but his price point may be too high for a tight end with a capped ceiling. While he’s unlikely to be a bust, better value can be found later in drafts.
- Final Verdict: Ferguson is a solid tight end option, but his ADP may not offer much value. Fantasy managers should consider prioritizing tight ends with higher upside or waiting to draft a tight end later.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Jake Ferguson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Ferguson is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
5) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
6) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
7) George Kittle, TE | San Francisco 49ers
8) Kyle Pitts, TE | Atlanta Falcons
9) David Njoku, TE | Cleveland Browns
10) Jake Ferguson, TE | Dallas Cowboys
11) Brock Bowers, TE | Las Vegas Raiders
12) Dallas Goedert, TE | Philadelphia Eagles
13) T.J. Hockenson, TE | Minnesota Vikings
14) Dalton Schultz, TE | Houston Texans
15) Cole Kmet, TE | Chicago Bears
Ferguson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Evaluating non-elite tight ends for fantasy is always such a fascinating exercise. Ferguson wasn’t even drafted in many leagues last season. Where he was, he was a double-digit round selection. The cost to acquire him was mostly free. That made him a great value.
Ferguson finished as the overall TE10, which is awesome considering his price (or lack thereof). However, he only averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game. For context, the TE14 was at 9.4 points per game.
From a performance standpoint, Ferguson was quite good. He didn’t blow anyone away with volume, commanding just a 16.9% target share. However, 16.9% of the targets in a Dak Prescott offense is better than a 20% target share in worse, lower-volume offenses.
Most importantly, Prescott looked for Ferguson in the red zone. The tight end saw 25 targets inside the 20-yard line, the most in the league. Even so, Ferguson only scored five touchdowns. It easily could’ve been more.
There’s reason to believe Ferguson can be better this season. The Cowboys did not make any meaningful additions at wide receiver. In fact, losing Tony Pollard is more impactful to the overall target pie than anything they did at WR.
Lamb will continue to dominate targets. But behind him, it’s still Brandin Cooks. At 6’5″, Ferguson is a better option in the end zone. We can and should project him to score more. Ultimately, that’s really all we care about with non-elite tight ends — touchdowns. Every back-end TE1 is pretty much touchdown or bust. Ferguson has as much touchdown upside as any of them.
Is Ferguson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The problem with drafting a guy like Ferguson is his cost. His TE10 price is fine. However, his overall ADP at No. 84 is a problem. That’s awfully high for a tight end who, ultimately, is unlikely to be a difference-maker at the position.
Ferguson is not going to be a bust. He will be fine. But you don’t pay for “fine.” You can get fine outside of the top 12. You can get “fine” off the waiver wire.
Quite frankly, I am not sure why Ferguson is going ahead of David Njoku. As long as that remains the case, I will be prioritizing the Cleveland Browns TE over the Cowboys’ TE every time.
Ferguson is my TE10, but that area of the draft is not where I am looking to take tight ends. I either want a guy who can average 14+ ppg or I will punt the position and be one of the last teams to draft a tight end. It’s fine paying for the shot at 14+ ppg. But don’t pay for 10 ppg. You can get that, or close to it, for free.
