Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs comes equipped with elite draft capital and a clearly defined role. Brought in to replace D’Andre Swift, can Gibbs be even better than Swift was the past three seasons? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Outlook
When the Lions spent the 12th overall pick on Gibbs, the writing was on the wall for Swift. Everyone knew he had to be gone soon. Sure enough, the Lions traded him to the Eagles a mere two days later. That paved the way for Gibbs to step right into Swift’s previous role.
To appropriately evaluate Gibbs’ fantasy outlook, we first must look at what Swift has done. The sense I get from fantasy circles is Swift’s career in Detroit is largely looked at as a disappointment. On that, I must agree.
Swift was supposed to be the team’s franchise running back. Instead, he couldn’t get out of a committee with replacement-level talents and just never became more than one-half of a timeshare.
At the same time, Swift was able to produce quite well on limited touches. He averaged 14.6, 16.1, and 13.7 PPR fantasy points per game in his three seasons in Detroit. He did that while averaging just 13 touches per game.
Where Swift really shined was as a pass catcher. His target share last season was 15.1%, sixth in the league. Gibbs was brought in to play that same role. He saw at least an 11% target share in each of his three years at college. In his final season at Alabama, he saw a 12.8% target share.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings
Over the past two seasons, with Jared Goff at quarterback, the Lions have targeted the running back position on 23.3% (2021) and 20.6% (2022) of passes.
Currently, the only thing we can be sure of in the Lions’ passing game is that a whole boatload of targets will head Amon-Ra St. Brown’s way. Behind him, they have a rookie tight end in Sam LaPorta, a suspended-for-six-games Jameson Williams (who also had a dreadful rookie season), and rotational WR4/5s Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond.
There is a nonzero chance Gibbs is second on this team in targets. Of course, that represents more of his ceiling outcome. But it’s relevant as it pertains to whether he’s worth drafting this season.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Gibbs at His ADP?
Gibbs has blazing 4.36 speed and early-round draft capital. He will share a backfield with David Montgomery, which likely will result in low touchdown upside, but fantasy managers need to view touchdowns as a bonus for Gibbs. He should be explosive enough to score 5-6 of them anyway.
My projections have Gibbs at 165 carries for 843 yards and five touchdowns, as well as 68 catches for 542 yards and 3.4 scores. That comes out to 15.2 ppg and an RB16 finish, which is exactly where I have him ranked.
Fantasy managers are quite bullish on Gibbs, as evidenced by his RB17 ADP, No. 37 overall. While I do feel like Gibbs is being drafted close to his ceiling, he’s not necessarily someone I will shy away from based purely on that fact.
Gibbs is undeniably a talented player. The lofty expectations come from the combination of the Lions’ high-powered offense, expected progression from the offense beyond last season, Gibbs’ talent, and the likely consolidated touch distribution.
I have Gibbs projected for 233 touches on the season. That averages out to 13.7 per game. In 2021, Swift averaged 16.4 touches per game. That tells me there’s a reasonable path to Gibbs touching the ball more than I expect, which means there is still room for him to outperform his ADP. As a result, I ranked him as my RB12.
Given the lack of trustworthy running backs, even if Gibbs’ ADP is closer to his ceiling than his median outcome, he projects to be a high-floor player and is someone fantasy managers should absolutely consider taking in fantasy drafts this season.