The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Washington Commanders WR Jahan Dotson’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Doston take the sophomore leap and be a reliable fantasy asset, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Jahan Dotson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It used to be that wide receivers were given a pass for their rookie year, with expectations for a significant Year 2 jump. But sensational play from receivers like Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown changed the script, and now fantasy managers expect a player to flash their potential as a rookie.
After a somewhat subdued rookie campaign, Dotson is a player to watch as a post-hype potential breakout player in his second season. Dotson was one of my favorite receivers in last year’s class as he jumped off the screen. He wins both outside and in the slot, and, despite being on the smaller side, he has a substantial catch radius due to elite body control and sticky hands.
Dotson lost a significant portion of his rookie season due to a hamstring injury. After posting 12 receptions, 152 yards, and four touchdowns on 22 targets in Weeks 1-4 (WR28), Dotson returned to action in Week 10 and averaged 2.9 on 4.9 targets for 46.4 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
It’s worth noting that Washington was cautious in his usage. Between Weeks 10-12, he played on less than 60% of the snaps and saw only four targets.
From Week 13 on, which included starts by three different QBs, Dotson was the WR17 in points per game (14.7 PPR/g) and 21st overall on 21 of 35 receiving for 344 yards and three touchdowns while setting team highs in target share (23.81%) and air-yard share (34.81%, 15th in NFL). That is the player we hope shows up early in 2023.
Any concerns with Dotson shouldn’t be about his skill set but about the Commanders’ quarterback situation. Sam Howell is an enigma right now. He rode the bench for the first 16 games until the Commanders gave him a start in Week 18, where he completed 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
He is expected to be the starting quarterback, and early reports are positive, but we’re still talking about a redshirt rookie QB essentially, limiting the ceiling of those around him.
As you would expect, the priority targets will go toward Terry McLaurin, who should post another top-20 season, but I am still relatively high on Dotson.
My initial run of median projections has Dotson sitting as a low-end WR3 while catching roughly 55-60 of his targets for 720-760 yards with 5-6 TDs in 2023.
Should You Draft Jahan Dotson This Year?
Where Dotson’s ADP settled would always play a significant factor in whether or not you should look to draft him in 2023 fantasy football redraft leagues. While I do think he will have a good season, I’m not going to be stupid in how much draft capital I wager on that assumption. This is a game of risk management, after all.
Based on early ADP reporting, Dotson is coming in as roughly the WR40 with an ADP of around 90, which would place him in the middle of the eighth round. I will not nitpick that much, as I think that’s relatively close to where he should go.
However, that doesn’t make Dotson a value; he is just properly ranked. If you’re high on Dotson, like I am, I’m fine giving this type of draft capital to someone who will likely flash in 2023. Dotson is one of the best outside-the-frame catchers we’ve had in the last couple of years, and that could be very important for Howell, especially early in his first year starting.
We’re also going to need Washington to throw more. Their 55% passing rate was the eighth-lowest in the NFL, and they were sixth-lowest in passing rate over expectation at -7.6%. Hopefully, with less turnover under center, we can see these numbers get closer to the league average, which would only help players like Dotson, Howell, and McLaurin.
Although Dotson is not someone I want as my No. 1 or No. 2, I’d love to have him on my team as a high-upside WR4 who can be in the starting lineup when we have enough confidence in the repeatability of his outcomes.
I don’t see a top-20 outcome in his direct future, but I am confident in Dotson finishing inside the top 30 at his position, and based on his current fantasy football rankings and ADP, he is someone I am targeting on draft day.