Washington Commanders WR Jahan Dotson made quite a first impression at the professional level with a pair of scores in his debut and four in his first four games, but the sledding has been more difficult since. Opinions of the former Nittany Lion are all over the place entering 2024 as the team begins the Jayden Daniels era.
Should fantasy football managers embrace a price that is severely discounted from where it stood just 12 months ago, or are there better ways to invest in this offense?
Should You Select Jahan Dotson at His Current ADP?
ADP: 181st Overall (WR66)
With all of that said, everyone is skeptical of Dotson, which creates a buying opportunity that comes with virtually no risk. He’s being drafted well outside of the first 10 rounds, meaning you’ve put together a well-rounded roster by the time you’re asked to decide on the 24-year-old.
Do I prefer Dotson over Gabe Davis or Josh Downs? I do. I think his raw talent is superior to those situations, and at this point in the draft, I’ll embrace his quarterback’s unknown.
Davis is an interesting option, given his role with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he’s proven to be virtually what Dotson has been up to this point, and that’s not a player I love rostering.
I don’t know if Dotson will be better or develop consistency, but with youth on his side and an overhaul of his offense, I don’t know that he won’t be better — that’s enough in the later rounds.
Dontayvion Wicks is my favorite cheap receiver in this ADP range due to the offense he plays for and the lack of clarity in Green Bay when it comes to target hierarchy, but Dotson is a live option despite the slow start to his NFL career.
Not to be overlooked is the fact that the Commanders end the season with back-to-back-to-back games against teams that ranked top 10 in terms of the highest percentage of touchdowns allowed via the pass in 2023.
Dotson is a cheap way to stack Daniels and invest in growth over time. If he flames out, your fantasy season is far from ruined.
Dotson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
“Volume is king” is something you’ll hear daily from now until the fantasy season ends. I agree with that statement and will likely use it, but I’d argue that consistency is just as important as raw volume at the receiver position.
While Dotson has flashed potential at this level, his lack of consistency over the past two seasons has made it impossible to play him with confidence.
- 2022: 14.9 yards per catch, scored on 20% of his catches
- 2023: 10.6 yards per catch, scored on 8.2% of his catches
That showcases a lack of annual consistency, and it only gets worse week over week. You probably didn’t play Dotson in the first two games of his career and got burned (seven catches on 10 targets for 99 yards and three scores). You then, likely, tried to correct that error and began plugging him in as a Flex option, thinking that you had the next breakout rookie receiver.
That didn’t work either. Around an injury, Dotson scored only once over his next six games, totaling just 80 yards in those games and showing extreme limitations on his ability to earn targets. Once you gave up on him, he found paydirt in three straight December games that would have greatly helped your playoff push.
That late-season spike was the equivalent of struggling on the golf course and hitting a 35-foot putt on Hole 18 — it was just enough to suck you back in for next time.
Last season, Dotson didn’t reach even 45 receiving yards in a game until late October despite the Commanders ranking third in pass rate over expectation. At that point, you likely cut ties, which would have made plenty of sense…he then caught 13 passes for 177 yards and scored twice over two weeks.
That’s a maddening profile for a former first-round pick. As good as I think Daniels can be for fantasy purposes, his passing growth figures to lag behind his rushing ability, and that could result in similar peaks/valleys for his WR2.