Philadelphia Eagles WR Jahan Dotson was a trendy upside pick in fantasy football drafts last season. He wound up being one of the biggest disappointments.
With a new quarterback and coaching staff, can Dotson bounce back in his third season?
Jahan Dotson’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Perhaps we should’ve known better after Dotson was only able to post 523 receiving yards as a rookie. Historical analysis shows that rookie WRs who fail to reach 525 receiving yards very rarely turn into relevant fantasy assets.
Yes, Dotson was only two yards short. No, that doesn’t excuse him from falling into the bucket of players unlikely to break out.
In his sophomore season — a year when WRs typically take big steps forward — Dotson went in the opposite direction. His yards per route run went from 1.5 to 0.83. He averaged 10.6 yards per reception after a 14.9 mark as a rookie.
Most concerning, in a high-volume passing attack, Dotson was only able to command a target on 13.3% of his routes run. That led to a disappointing 13.8% target share.
For Dotson to be fourth in the league in total routes run and average fewer than five targets per game is very discouraging for his future prospects.
Dotson averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game. He had two top-12 weeks and one additional top-36 week. Each of his other 14 games was outside the top 36 and usually outside the top 60. There is not a single metric you can look at from Dotson’s 2023 season that paints a positive picture.
The hope for Dotson going forward is that he’s the clear WR3 on the Eagles. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to dominate targets, but there’s an opening for Dotson to be third.
Unfortunately, with a mobile quarterback like Jalen Hurts, the third option isn’t necessarily someone valuable in fantasy.
The Commanders led the NFL with a 67% pass rate last season. The Eagles may attempt 100 fewer passes than the Commanders did last season.
Additionally, we have the added wrinkle of Dotson having just joined the Eagles two weeks before the season starts. Talent concerns aside, Dotson will need to time to learn the offense and get integrated into his new role. That’s a tough ask for a top receiver, let alone a role player.
I have Dotson ranked as my WR71. Given his performance over his first two seasons, combined with his team situation, Dotson is not someone I am interested in drafting this year. At his price, there is no downside. However, there are several players with more upside that are better options for the last spot on your bench.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Jahan Dotson
Prior to Dotson being traded, there was optimism that he could be set for a breakout for exactly the same reason as Collins: a new quarterback throwing him the ball. However, he now heads to Philadelphia, where he will be the third wide receiver and potentially the fifth pass-catching option.
Now for Dotson to have any fantasy relevance, he is likely going to need either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith to get injured. Running as the WR3 will likely put him behind Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley in the offensive hierarchy.
Even if Brown or Smith were to get injured, there is no guarantee that Dotson would be anything better than the fourth option in the passing game. This trade makes a lot of sense for the Eagles but is not good for Dotson’s fantasy value. The fact that the Commanders were willing to trade Dotson to a division rival is also pretty telling about what the new coaching staff thought of him.
Dotson’s ADP was at No. 149 overall in the 13th round as the WR63 off the board, and it made him a very reasonably priced dart throw with plenty of upside entering his third year in the league. However, now that value looks too high, and we may even see that ADP fall before the start of the season.