The Washington Commanders haven’t provided their offensive skill position players with a lot of consistency over the last two seasons with different starting quarterbacks and offensive coordinators.
This puts dynasty shareholders of Jahan Dotson — who has failed to produce a top-50 fantasy finish at the WR position over his first two years — in a tricky position entering the 2024 NFL season.
Should dynasty fantasy football managers consider Dotson a great buy-low option or attempt to cut their losses heading into his third year in the NFL?
Jahan Dotson’s Dynasty Outlook
Talented prospects who fail to live up to fantasy expectations within the first two years of their NFL career put dynasty managers in a difficult situation.
On one hand, you can still believe in the player if the situation surrounding the lack of overall production makes logical sense.
On the other hand, the data surrounding players who finally breakout in their third season and sustain that production for the remainder of their career isn’t exactly overwhelming favorable.
In fact, part of the challenge of playing dynasty fantasy is knowing when to offload depreciating assets and when to be patient with a player. The best dynasty managers play the market perfectly, knowing when to take calculated risks and when to cash out while you still can.
#Commanders QB Sam Howell hits Jahan Dotson as time expires to send it to OT 🤯
MADNESS.
pic.twitter.com/jkSMQtmgFX— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2023
Other times, the answer isn’t quite as clear for a talented player like Dotson heading into his third NFL season.
In the case of Dotson, he has still occasionally flashed glimpses of being a difference-maker at the NFL level with stretches of explosive play and the ability to win against man or zone coverage while running a pretty complete route tree.
Unfortunately, the Washington organization hasn’t been the model of consistency over the past decade. The offseason changes were plentiful this offseason. The team has a new head coach (Dan Quinn), offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury), GM (Adam Peters), and a high likelihood of a new quarterback under center.
A case can be made for all of these changes either positively or negatively impacting his dynasty value, depending on whether or not you have an optimistic view of Dotson’s talent.
Now, I don’t want to be the one to hit the panic button on a talented prospect like Dotson too quickly, but his 47 receptions for 501 yards with four scores this season in one of the league’s most pass-happy offenses should have dynasty managers pretty concerned.
This new regime could spell disaster for Dotson heading into a deep WR draft class in 2024 if the new staff doesn’t see him as a big part of their plans moving forward.
It doesn’t help that the Commanders acquired additional draft capital near the trade deadline when they traded away both Montez Sweat and Chase Young in return for picks in the upcoming NFL Draft.
One thing can be said for certain … his value has definitely taken a major hit after finishing the year as the WR56 in PPR formats, but the overhaul of the organization and Dotson’s raw talent still give him some dynasty value heading into the 2024 offseason.
Dotson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Dotson land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest rankings, featuring where Dotson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
3) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) A.J. Brown | PHI
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) Puka Nacua | LAR
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Rashee Rice | KC
11) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
12) DeVonta Smith | PHI
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Zay Flowers | BAL
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
17) Tank Dell | HOU
18) Nico Collins | HOU
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
21) Deebo Samuel | SF
22) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Jordan Addison | MIN
25) Jayden Reed | GB
26) Amari Cooper | CLE
27) Davante Adams | LV
28) Keenan Allen | LAC
29) Stefon Diggs | BUF
30) Mike Evans | TB
31) Cooper Kupp | LAR
32) George Pickens | PIT
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) Diontae Johnson | PIT
35) Josh Downs | IND
36) Christian Kirk | JAX
37) Calvin Ridley | JAX
38) Chris Godwin | TB
39) Courtland Sutton | DEN
40) Romeo Doubs | GB
41) Jakobi Meyers | LV
42) Treylon Burks | TEN
43) Jahan Dotson | WAS
44) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
45) DeMario Douglas | NE
Should You Trade Dotson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Dotson? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
The dynasty market is pretty clear for Dotson right now. If you are a current shareholder, you either commit to a long-term hold of him or simply cut your losses and sell-low. Those who invested late first-round rookie draft capital a couple of years ago won’t get that back in return right now for even the biggest Dotson truthers out there.
On the flip side, I do see plenty of potential as a discounted buy-low option at this moment. His recent disappointing production, combined with all of the uncertainty that comes with the Washington franchise right now, makes it feel like he is a talented player you can get at a very reasonable price.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategies
If you could get an early second-round rookie pick in exchange for Dotson, I would strongly consider it because I absolutely love this receiver class and believe you can get a Dotson-like prospect with an early second.
However, if your league mates are only willing to acquire him from you by exchanging a third-round pick or later, then I’m going to roll the dice on Dotson’s talent and hold onto him heading into the 2024 NFL season.
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