Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson is looking to make the modern classic sophomore-year leap. Coming off a solid rookie season, Dotson will need to overcome his QB situation and Terry McLaurin to produce. Should fantasy football managers draft Dotson at his ADP this season?
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Jahan Dotson’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
I feel like fantasy managers forget Dotson isn’t some Day 2 pick we’re hoping breaks out. The man was taken in the first round. Or maybe it’s just me? Either way, Dotson flashed enough as a rookie to prove he can be something in the NFL.
Dotson just barely surpassed the 500-yard threshold we look for in rookie receivers, totaling 523 yards on 35 receptions.
Injuries limited Dotson to just 12 games, but he did average 10.9 PPR fantasy points per game in them. That was good for a WR38 finish.
Dotson has no real hope of overtaking McLaurin as the top target earner on this team. That doesn’t necessarily mean his target share ceiling is lower. Fortunately, he is a near lock to surpass the 15.6% he saw last season. Dotson should be able to crest 20%. Ideally, he will be targeted on more than 17.5% of his routes run.
Additionally, Dotson has shown downfield ability. His 13.5 average depth of target last season was 14th in the league.
According to Inside Edge, Dotson gained 20+ yards on six of his 16 receptions in the last four weeks of the regular season, which was third-most of 61 qualified wide receivers. That’s very impressive for anyone, let alone a rookie.
I’m reasonably confident Dotson is good at football. I can’t say the same about Sam Howell. The Commanders’ quarterback situation is the biggest impediment to Dotson breaking out.
The good news is the Howell experiment is just that — an experiment. If he struggles, Ron Rivera will not hesitate to turn to Jacoby Brissett. While Brissett is no savior, he was able to make Amari Cooper and, to a lesser extent, Donovan Peoples-Jones, both fantasy-relevant last season.
McLaurin isn’t as good as Cooper, and Dotson is better than DPJ. With Brissett, I would feel much better about Dotson’s chances of posting weekly WR3 numbers.
Is Dotson a Good Fantasy Pick?
Dotson’s ADP sits at WR36, No. 95 overall. In the wake of McLaurin’s toe sprain, I recently bumped Dotson up to that exact rank. Unfortunately, fantasy managers looking to draft him may have to pay a premium they wouldn’t have had to pay three weeks ago.
Dotson is the WR38 in our PFN consensus rankings, and we all have him valued pretty similarly … except Derek Tate, who is significantly higher. To be fair, Derek is probably right.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Realistically, you could justify ranking Dotson as high as the mid-30s or as low as the mid-40s. His price is fair and is more likely to be closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Sophomore-year wide receivers are historically very good bets in fantasy, making Dotson a very worthwhile WR3/4 for your fantasy teams this season.