The Jacksonville Jaguars have overhauled their wide receiver options this offseason, and two new faces will line up alongside Christian Kirk in 2024.
Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are in, replacing Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, but what does that mean for the group’s fantasy value?
Let’s take a look at the fantasy football outlook for Kirk, Davis, and Thomas to see which of them you should be targeting this season.
Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 227.2 (145.2 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 82.0
- Receiving Yards: 1086.6
- Receiving TDs: 5.8
The key to Kirk’s success is playing the slot. Inexplicably, the Arizona Cardinals refused to use him where he performs best.
Fortunately, the Jaguars did not suffer from the same ailment. Kirk ran 52% of his routes from the slot in 2022 and 67% in 2023. The concern this year is whether Ridley’s departure will force Kirk back outside. I don’t think it will.
In addition to Ridley, Jacksonville also lost Jones. That left Kirk as the only viable receiver, so the team signed Davis and drafted Thomas.
Initially, this may seem bad for Kirk, as more target competition is never good. However, I posit that Thomas and Davis combine to form no more of a threat to Kirk’s target share than Ridley and Jones did.
Thomas projects to be a better receiver than Ridley was last season (admittedly, it’s not a particularly high bar). However, Davis is a sizable downgrade from Jones in terms of a target threat.
I don’t mean to say Davis is a far worse receiver. Rather, he’s just different.
Davis is there to be a stretch Z, nothing more. He’s going to run downfield and occasionally make plays. He does not project for a very high target share, and what he offers is very different from what Kirk does. As a result, the two should not overlap.
Thomas is the greater threat as the better talent. However, he is still a rookie, and there’s enough to go around for Kirk and Thomas to thrive. Overall, this is a good situation for Kirk.
While I typically prefer targeting players with good quarterbacks, I would stop short of classifying Trevor Lawrence as such. Kirk is a talented player who should see good opportunities. Plus, it’s not as if Lawrence is awful. He’s average.
Most importantly, Kirk’s ADP is WR30, which puts him at No. 70 overall. While I’m only slightly higher with him at WR26, I do like Kirk a lot. The fact that you can get a reliable WR3 with WR2 upside this far down the wide receiver rankings is very appealing.
The wide receiver position is incredibly deep in Jacksonville, but Kirk is definitely a player fantasy managers should target in the middle rounds.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 197.6 (132.2 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 65.3
- Receiving Yards: 979.5
- Receiving TDs: 5.4
The Jags spent the No. 23 overall pick in April on Thomas after he lit up college football with 17.3 yards per catch and 17 scores on 68 receptions for the WR factory that is LSU these days.
While Jacksonville is coming off a disappointing season, there’s still optimism that Lawrence is the man to take this franchise to the promised land. And with play-calling that skews in the favor of the passing game (fifth in pass rate over expectation in 2023), that could make BTJ an instant star.
Thomas’ ADP is currently around 115th overall. If that stays, you’ll be loading your roster with the type of depth that fantasy champions are made of.
We saw Rashee Rice and Jayden Reed really pick up their production as their rookie seasons went on last season, a trend among high-pedigree first-year wideouts and one that Thomas could capitalize on as well.
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts
You’re passing on Courtland Sutton or pick-your-favorite-Buffalo-Bill-receiver tier of WR to gain access to the services of Thomas.
I’m in. All the way. Without question. The risk has been taken out of this profile based on cost, something that cannot be said for most of this loaded rookie class.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Gabe Davis Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 148.4 (107.1 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 41.2
- Receiving Yards: 687.3
- Receiving TDs: 6.4
Davis’ ADP of WR61 at No. 166 overall is the most affordable he’s been in the past three years. Nevertheless, it’s difficult to get excited about what Davis has to offer.
Davis’ talent is what it is. He hasn’t really shown much improvement over the course of his career. He’s an inconsistent stretch Z — a splash play specialist. There’s a reason his catch rate is consistently around 55%. In the right environment, though, that can work for fantasy.
The problem with Davis is how the environment can ever be better than it was in Buffalo. He had Josh Allen, a top-three quarterback. The Bills had no viable WR2 behind Stefon Diggs, creating all the opportunity in the world for Davis. The reality is Davis was unable to command targets.
Now, Davis heads to Jacksonville for a fresh start. That can often be good for players. In Davis’ case, though, it’s hard to see it.
For starters, Davis is facing a massive downgrade in quarterback play. Allen is one of the best QBs in the league. Lawrence is mediocre, at best. Second, there’s actually more target competition in Jacksonville than in Buffalo.
Even though the Jaguars lack an alpha-target hog like prime Diggs, they have two very capable pass-catchers in Kirk and Evan Engram. They also added a rookie Thomas, who could very well immediately be the best WR on this team. Davis is now competing with three talented players for targets instead of just one.
I have Davis ranked as my WR57, which is slightly above consensus. However, this late in drafts, that gap is largely meaningless. These players are all similarly valued, and you can take your pick of who you want to target. For my money, Davis is not the type of guy I’m looking to target.
Entering his fifth season, we know who Davis is.
I’d rather take a chance on younger, unproven players with the potential to do more than provide the sporadic unpredictable spike week.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst