If you’re looking for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Saturday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 18, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Jaguars Considerations
It’s incredible to think how far the Jaguars have come in such a short time. For much of the season, it appeared they’d finish no better than third in the AFC South in Year 2 of a gradual franchise rebuild. Instead, they’re playing for the division title.
Our core DFS considerations are two-fold. First, what’s the most likely scoring outcome? Second, should we invest more in the Jags’ passing game or running game? Because it’ll be hard to afford both unless we completely bail on high-priced Titan Derrick Henry.
Some competitors might be wary of Trevor Lawrence after two straight games with zero passing scores. But his matchup against Tennessee’s vulnerable secondary is, to say the least, appealing.
Additionally, the Titans have one of the league’s stingiest run defenses, yielding only 3.4 yards per carry — barely a fraction of a point behind the 49ers for the NFL lead. For context, the next best run defense belongs to the Ravens (3.9 yards per carry). That’s a wide gap, and indicative of how many teams learn the hard way that running through Tennessee usually isn’t a winning strategy.
Titans Considerations
For the 18th straight week, it’s Derrick-Henry-or-bust. I sound like a broken record. But it’s warranted.
Henry has racked up 1,808 total yards on 351 touches. He’s accounted for 36% of his team’s offensive yards, 42% of their offensive touchdowns, and 49% of their touches. That’s an insanely top-heavy unit by any standard.
As we look to optimal DFS lineups, it’s hard to conceive of one without Henry in it. With Joshua Dobbs starting his second career game, I expect the former fourth-string QB to lean somewhat heavily on his star playmaker. Normally minimally used in the passing game, I’d be surprised if Henry catches fewer than four passes in this must-win game.
The receiving corps is more chaotic, with five capable pass catchers, all of whom are TD-dependent. And if Tennessee gets close to the Jags’ end zone, assuredly, Henry will be the featured option.
Top DFS Picks for Jaguars vs. Titans
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($16,200)
The year Peyton Manning first reached the postseason (1999), he guided the Colts to a 13-3 record and the AFC’s No. 2 seed. The No. 1 seed was the Jaguars (14-2), which barely beat out the Titans (13-3) in Tennessee’s first season as the “Titans” (and not the Oilers).
That season, Manning went from a talented QB with a bright future to a developing legend.
I believe this game will help launch Lawrence as a pre-legendary QB heading into 2023. He has the skills, the teammate, and the coaching staff to shine. Predicting 260+ yards and four touchdowns.
Flex: RB Derrick Henry, Titans ($11,800)
It would be simpler to pass on Henry and instead lock down two solid performers. But if the Titans score, it’ll probably be Henry doing it. We can’t afford to ignore someone expected to carry his team — even if the Jags will do everything possible to keep him under 95 rushing yards.
Flex: WR Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($10,200)
A calculated risk. We could afford Zay Jones and Jamal Agnew or Christian Kirk and the third-string TE. After a strong start (and middle) to the season, Kirk has faded recently. But don’t let that dissuade you. Kirk has blow-up appeal in a highly favorable matchup. This game is, after all, why the Jags paid him in the offseason.
Flex: TE Evan Engram, Jaguars ($7,000)
Too many targets to ignore. After rarely reaching his potential with the Giants, Engram has become one of the league’s most dominant TEs. He and Lawrence are gelling, plain and simple.
Flex: Jaguars D/ST ($4,600)
I trust Jacksonville’s defense more than Dobbs. It comes down to that calculation. The Jags D/ST is affordable and is facing Tennessee at the ideal time.
Flex: TE Dan Arnold, Jaguars ($200)
We’re using our final $200 on a Hail Mary. Dan Arnold has caught a pass in nine games this season. The hope here is that if Lawrence does indeed throw for four scores, Arnold could get one.
It’s not a longshot perspective. He’s earned 13+ offensive snaps in three of his last four games, and on the year he’s caught two of three red-zone targets.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.