The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mac Jones, QB
Mac Jones’ final stat line ended up looking fine against the Raiders last week (247 yards and a touchdown), but if not for a single play (62-yard touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr.), he would have posted an absolute dud in a great spot.
Jones is at obvious risk of being involved in another ugly slugfest this week, and with a 2.4% touchdown rate this season, I have no interest in going this direction under any circumstances. Much like Aidan O’Connell in Vegas, or even his opposing number in this game, Jones has one job, and that is to feed his top receiving option like his life depends on it.
Jones’ life may not, but our fantasy seasons do!
Tank Bigsby, RB
Keep reading if you want the snap shares for his backfield, but spoiler alert: there’s not much to glean from that data. Heck, I was more confused after I tracked down the numbers than I was prior.
That said, Tank Bigsby was the only Jaguars running back to get a snap in the red zone last week, and if I’m forced into playing an RB in this backfield, it’s a decision I am 100% making based on chasing a touchdown.
This season, the Titans own the fifth-worst red zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 64.7% of drives that cross their 20-yard line. There’s no guarantee that even if you pick the right Jacksonville back, you’re rewarded with fantasy points, and that has me trending away from this situation if at all possible.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.
I’ve been in this industry for over a decade, and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.
Week 9:
- Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
- Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
- Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
- Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
- Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
- Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
- Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
- Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
- Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
- Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
Week 16:
- Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
- Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps
That snap share would seem to point one way lately, but then you look at the box score and see that, on three more carries, Bigsby ran for 28 more yards than Etienne.
I’ve made a call. Probably four weeks too late, but I’ve made a call. This is one of those things I just will not understand. Like time zones, silent letters, and society’s passion for scary movies.
I’m passing on both members of this backfield and not looking forward to ranking them for next season.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Brian Thomas Jr. is one of three receivers since 2000 to post 1,000 yards and nine touchdown catches through 16 weeks of his rookie season — and they all came from LSU (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).
Whose career trajectory will BTJ’s follow?
I’m a hopeless optimist, so I want to lean toward Chase. We can have that talk after this season ends. When it comes to Week 17, I’m beyond nervous. Mac Jones hadn’t completed a pass over 20 air yards this season prior to last week (62-yard TD to Thomas), and now he faces the fifth-best YPA defense on deep passes. Thomas has been elite, I get it. Heck, I’ll give you the numbers:
WRs in the 24 PPR PPG Club since Week 13:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 26.6 PPG
- Davante Adams: 26.5 PPG
- Justin Jefferson: 26.5 PPG
- Thomas: 24.0 PPG
But this could be a down spot where volume is an issue, and I’m nowhere near comfortable in assuming that the quality of targets in Jacksonville can offset a lack of quantity. I still have BTJ ranked as a starter, but he’s outside of my top 20 at the position for the first time in a while, and I won’t have any DFS exposure.
Parker Washington, WR
Parker Washington had a 100% catch rate last week, and that allowed him to eke his way into Flex viability in PPR formats, but how comfortable are you in betting on a perfect day at the office in a Mac Jones-led offense?
Washington’s target rate over the past three weeks sits at 12%, a number that isn’t even remotely close to being roster-worthy. If you’re betting on Jacksonville, you’re doing it in chasing Brian Thomas Jr.’s high ceiling. You’re not trying to grind your way to another 11.4 PPR points that come with a disastrous floor.
Brenton Strange, TE
Week 17 Status: PLAYING
Brenton Strange put up 18.3 PPR points on plenty of benches in Week 15 and then busted with a 2.2-point outing on Sunday in Las Vegas when we were ready to trust him.
Ugh.
I was ready to fire up “Ponzi Scheme Strange” as a nickname, and I still like the ring it has, but I don’t believe it. The fact of the matter is that the Jaguars simply didn’t view him as valuable in this spot.
One week after being on the field for 80.5% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps, Strange’s role was reduced to 50.8%, resulting in just 15 routes run. When fully extended, we still have this trend from last week:
Strange’s production in four career games with 20+ routes:
- 12.4 PPR points per game
- 19.6% on-field target share
- 25% target rate in the red zone
I can’t pretend to know what is going on in the Jacksonville coaching rooms, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that scoring seven points on your final nine drives against the Raiders wasn’t the result they were hoping for.
The Titans allow the second-highest opponent passer rating when their opponents reach the red zone (112.7). I’m hopeful that Strange’s participation increases OR that the value of his routes improves — if we get both, that is how you walk into significant DFS value.
He’s too thin of a play for me in season-long formats, but I’m not fully selling in my stock just yet.