The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mac Jones, QB
Mac Jones is 0 for 17 with five interceptions when throwing the ball more than 20 yards downfield this season. That is hard to comprehend, but it’s true.
Truly awful.
I was ready to talk up this matchup with Maxx Crosby on the shelf, but the Raiders, on a consistent blitz rate, saw their pressure rate actually spike last week, their first game without their defensive star. We are asking for Jones to support Brian Thomas Jr. and that’s about it.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Tank Bigsby was cast aside last week in favor of Travis Etienne Jr., and while I have no doubt that there is the potential for that to flip in the other direction without any warning, does it matter?
We saw a few splash plays from the second-year back in the middle of the season, and I fear that those highlights have colored our opinion of him. The fact of the matter is that he looked lost as a rookie and, over his past six games, has had nowhere to run (0.09 yards per carry before first contact).
That’s a shade over three inches of room to operate. We could argue all day if that’s a running back stat (he can’t locate the holes) or an offensive line state (they can’t open up the holes), but one thing I know is that it is a running back production stat and that’s really all that matters.
In short, this profile is as straightforward as it is unappealing. If you’re in the market for a potentially below-average runner in a brutal offensive environment with an unknown role, Bigsby is your guy. If not, you have a chance at winning your matchup this week.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
You’re lying.
If you tell me with any level of confidence that you know who is getting the ball in Jacksonville this week, you’re outright lying. In their last five games played together …
Week 9:
Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
The Jags committed to Etienne from the jump last week (three carries and two targets on the first drive), but who is to say that we see that sustained?
The Raiders (22nd in rush defense EPA) sans Maxx Crosby and on short rest is obviously a plus spot, but the risk that comes with choosing wrong outweighs the reward in choosing right in a Mac Jones-led offense that has an implied total of 20 points this weekend.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Brian Thomas Jr.’s accolades are going to pile up as we come down the stretch, and they started last week as he set the franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie. He passed Justin Blackmon for that mark — the hope is that his career is what we thought Blackmon would do.
It’s not hard to put his name on the short list of the most promising rookie WRs in recent memory. He is one of three rookie receivers to have four 5-85-1 games in his first season, joining Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown, two WRs who will be first-round fantasy picks with ease next season.
As for the quarterback issues, they aren’t there. OK, they are, obviously, but not at the level you expect. Thomas’ expected PPR points over his past five games have been trending in the exact direction you’d want: 4.7, 11.9, 18.0, 20.6, and 26.1.
He has plenty of confidence, lacks competition, and is looking to make a statement as his first professional season comes to an end. Oh, and he gets the Raiders defense that is without Maxx Crosby and on a short week.
On the fast track.
There are plenty of receivers who I am downgrading significantly due to their quarterback situation — Thomas is not one of them.
Parker Washington, WR
Parker Washington lit up the Texans in Week 13 to the tune of 103 yards and a score on 12 targets, but he’s been an afterthought since. Despite playing plenty (77 routes), he’s hauled in just five passes for 69 yards over the past two weeks.
I’m not comfortable in assuming quality from this Jaguars passing game, and while Washington has shown capable of making plays on occasion, a 12.9% career on-field target share isn’t nearly enough to overcome Mac Jones’ struggles.
It’s Brian Thomas Jr. and (if you’re desperate) Brenton Strange in Jacksonville. That’s it, even in this advantageous matchup against a Raiders team that played on Monday night.
Brenton Strange, TE
It’s a lost season for the Jaguars, but like the Panthers, this team has some young members of the passing game that have the remaining weeks to further their development.
Brian Thomas Jr. is obviously an NFL player and potentially a bona fide star as early as next season, but what about Brenton Strange? The 23-year-old former second-round pick will have as great a role as he can handle coming down the stretch this season, and he’s done nothing but show well for himself when given the opportunity.
Strange’s production in four career games with 20+ routes:
- 12.4 PPR points per game
- 19.6% on-field target share
- 25% target rate in the red zone
Once you get past the top seven tight ends on the board this week, there are questions aplenty. Travis Kelce has his December woes and maybe no Patrick Mahomes, Dalton Kincaid is still working his way back, Tucker Kraft has cleared 41 yards once since Halloween, and the only reason I’m stopping with examples there is because I value the time of our wonderful editing staff.
The point is that you could squint and rank Strange as a top-10 tight end in the fantasy playoffs. I’m not going that far quite yet, but if a few injury situations go south, I might get there by Sunday. This is a weather-proof game against a bad defense that is without its best player and playing on short rest.
