The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Houston Texans in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mac Jones, QB
This is a lost season for the Jaguars, and without Mac Jones being labeled as the long-term solution, there’s no reason to think that Jacksonville extends him in a way that would be meaningful for our game.
Jones hasn’t been a top-25 quarterback in either of his starts this season — the only fantasy impact is his ability (or inability) to support two pass catchers who we are starting. Can he do that (249 passing yards on 51 attempts over the past two games)? I’m worried. Keep reading, and you’ll see where I stand on both Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Trevor Lawrence has returned to practice after missing two games with a shoulder injury and while he is a recognizable name, there’s no reason for this to interest fantasy managers as we come down the stretch of 2023.
Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are just two of the quarterbacks with a higher peak positional finish than Lawrence this season and with various injuries to his playmakers, I’m not confident that what we see post-injury is much different than what we saw prior.
With Brian Thomas as his primary weapon for most of his games this season, Lawrence has sacrificed some efficiency for deep shots (aDOT up 11% from last season), but he’s been unable to reach a ceiling performance as a result.
Perhaps the biggest flaw in his 2024 profile is the lack of rushing. Lawrence has one game this season with 20 yards on the ground, and if he is going to be a glorified pocket passer, he’s going to have to be near-perfect to work his way into the starting conversation in most fantasy leagues – not just this season, but for the foreseeable future.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Tank Bigsby was inactive in Week 11 before the bye, and this is a health situation to monitor. He’s shown well for himself in his second season (15.1% production over expectation), and that’s enough for me to shift the majority of RB carries in Jacksonville his way should he suit up.
That role is nice to have, but in this low-octane offense, the ceiling is only so high for a one-dimensional option (19 carries for every target this year). Fantasy championships aren’t usually won by banking on a committee back in an offense that ranks in the 25th percentile in most metrics — that’s what we have here, even if Bigsby is technically the starter.
Travis Etienne, RB
Travis Etienne Jr.’s name is on the list of most disappointing early-round picks this season, and I’m not sure there’s a path to him salvaging much given the state of this offense if Tank Bigsby can shake off his ankle injury.
Etienne’s production rates by season:
- 2023: 8.5% production over expectations
- 2024: 21.1% production under expectations
His metrics have declined across the board, most glaringly a 19.9% dip in yards per carry after contact; while I favor him in the passing game over Bigsby, I’m not sure there’s enough meat on this bone to start him with confidence.
If you’re confident that the goal line is Etienne’s to lose, you could talk yourself into a score saving your bacon (HOU: third worst red-zone defense), but if Bigsby is good to go, you’re grasping for straws.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Splash plays and volume were the calling cards of Brian Thomas Jr. to open this season, but September’s success won’t pay the bills during the winter months.
- Thomas had three straight games with at least eight targets early on — he hasn’t had a single game like that since
- Thomas had two 55+ yard receptions during a three-week stretch — he doesn’t have a 30-yard grab in over a month
Accepted logic for rookie receivers is that they take time to assimilate to the speed of the professional game and offer more production as their first season wears on. That sounds great as a blanket statement, but when we are talking about an entirely different situation now than two months ago in terms of the surrounding pieces, struggles like this aren’t all that surprising.
I’m holding my dynasty shares of Thomas without question, but we are trying to win Week 13 in this article, and I don’t think there’s a path to doing that. We know the quarterback play is a problem, and facing the defense that ranks third in non-blitz sack rate isn’t exactly the recipe for fixing that.
I’d rather take the assumed quantity of looks, even if the quality is in question, of a player like Jakobi Meyers this week and until proven unwise to do so.
Parker Washington, WR
The Jaguars started Parker Washington in Week 9 and left him on the field for 84.3% of the snaps in that loss to the Eagles, but they’ve dialed back his role since (54.4% snap share) and he’s managed just one reception on those 36 routes.
The idea of capitalizing on the Christian Kirk injury was sound, but it didn’t work out and you owe it to your roster to continue cycling through options to fill out the back end of your roster. It’s easy to ignore your reserves until you need them, but successful fantasy managers are consistently tweaking things in an effort to optimize their roster. In that vein, move on from Washington for a player either attached to a more potent offense or one with a more clear path to volume.
If you’re really trying to get creative for a DFS lineup, it’s worth noting that the Texans allow a touchdown on a league-high 13.5% of slot passes.
Evan Engram, TE
These backup QB situations create projection chaos, so it’s nice when a player like Evan Engram emerges.
With Mac Jones (2024):
- 30.6% on-field target share
- 73.3% catch rate
- 7.1 aDOT
With Trevor Lawrence (2024):
- 25.6% on-field target share
- 73.5% catch rate
- 6.2 aDOT
Engram is the only Jaguar I’m confident in these days, and I like his chances to catch at least five passes for the sixth time in seven games. With an implied team total of under 20 points, I’m not chasing Engram in a DFS setting where ceilings are rewarded. However, in any redraft league where I roster Engram, I’m starting him with confidence.