The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
The idea of buying low on Lawrence in a dynasty format is appealing to me, but the idea of playing him in a redraft format is appalling to me. With Christian Kirk done for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. potentially on the shelf for the next two weeks, what exactly is Lawrence’s path to a top-15 week?
A heavy dose of Evan Engram is likely, and I think that can result in some production. However, with the rushing upside much less prevalent than in years past (8.7 rushing yards per game over his past six), the risk profile is simply too large to even consider going in this direction.
Philadelphia is a top-10 time-of-possession team while Jacksonville is in the bottom 10. With this spread checking in at over a touchdown, the expectation is that the Eagles dictate tempo throughout. Lawrence has been a streamer for each of the past five weeks now (QB finishes between 9-15 in each of those contests), but I view that as an optimistic ceiling case this weekend with the more likely outcome being well behind that.
Lawrence is my QB23 for Week 9.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help — in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact. Even with those limitations, he’s cleared 75 rushing yards in four of his past five games, establishing himself as the lead back in Jacksonville.
I don’t love him in this spot, but the lead role is enough to keep him in most lineups. The Eagles are the sixth-best red-zone defense and allow rushing touchdowns to opposing backs at the third-lowest rate. Bigsby is what he is — a lead back who lacks versatility in a shaky offense.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
Etienne is battling a hamstring injury, but the greater drain on his fantasy potential is the play of Tank Bigsby. The second-year back has established himself as the go-to option in this backfield, and it’s hard to see that changing in the short term.
This season, Etienne’s production is 17.2% below expectation, a drastic dip from his +8.5% rate a season ago. His last 11 carries have picked up just 19 yards, highlighting a disturbing trend in the process.
This year, Etienne’s yards per carry before contact is up 84.6% from last season, but his yards per carry after contact are down 15.3%. Those two numbers aren’t supposed to work in contrast like that — you’d expect a running back who is getting downhill to be more difficult to tackle, but that hasn’t been the case here. To me, this suggests a change in running style and/or a lack of explosion.
It’s discouraging no matter how you explain it. Etienne should remain rostered due to his proximity to a lead role, but there’s no reason for him to be started in any format right now.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Initial reports of Thomas’ chest injury suggested that we were looking at an absence of up to a month, but Doug Pederson said on Monday that an MRI revealed just a contusion and that his star rookie was to be labeled as “day-to-day.”
It should be noted that we’ve seen day-to-day injuries drag on for weeks and week-to-week injuries result in only a few missed days. So, yeah, you’re going to want to keep tabs on this situation before making any final decisions.
If Thomas is active, he’s a starter; he’s earned that level of trust with a 28+ yard catch and a touchdown in four of his past five games. I loved to see the season-high slot usage (34.5% of routes) last weekend, as it showcases his versatility.
Time will tell if Thomas is the best receiver in this class. That’s an argument for another day, but he’s a locked-in fantasy starter when active, and that’s not going to change any time soon.
Christian Kirk, WR
Kirk had a nice three-game run in Weeks 3-5, but he’s underwhelmed ever since and won’t get the opportunity to make right for fantasy managers after his season came to an end in Week 8 due to a broken collarbone.
Fantasy managers can safely cut ties with him in all redraft formats and try to find an upside option on the waiver wire. In doing so, I’d look elsewhere than his direct replacement in Jacksonville, as it isn’t the least bit clear.
Slot usage in Jacksonville, 2024:
- Kirk: 77.5%
- Evan Engram: 33.8%
- Brenton Strange: 30.6%
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 23.9%
- Gabe Davis: 17.6%
- Travis Etienne Jr.: 1.1%
Gabe Davis, WR
Before getting dinged up last week, Davis had been on the field for over 67% of Jacksonville’s snaps in every game this season.
While his ability to earn looks from Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, he’s likely to be force-fed targets in this spot with the Jags a 7.5-point underdog and without their two top receivers for the foreseeable future (Christian Kirk is out for the season and Brian Thomas Jr.’s timeline is fluid but seems to be on the wrong side of questionable as of today).
Veterans know the deal with Davis; new players, consider yourselves lucky. The only consistent portion of Davis up to this point in his career is inconsistency, so take this sales pitch for what it is: an optimistic view of a profile that comes with as much risk as any player even remotely on your radar.
Lawrence’s deep completion percentage is trending for a career-best, and that is even more impressive when you consider that his average long pass is traveling further this year than in years past.
Davis is averaging 15.2 PPR PPG for his career when seeing at least seven targets per game, a potential he could well fulfill in an expanded role against an Eagles defense that ranks worse than the league average against the deep pass in passer rating, yards per completion, and touchdown rate.
Scared money doesn’t make money — but hopefully, you have different income options.
Evan Engram, TE
How good has Engram been since returning? I’m glad you asked.
In his last three games, he’s averaging 13.4 PPR points per game with a 5.5-yard aDOT and a 25% on-field target share. During his nearly record-breaking 2023 campaign, he averaged 13.6 PPR points per game with a 5.0-yard aDOT and a 23.4% on-field target share.
He’s been an elite option, and Trevor Lawrence’s confidence in his tight end was never more clear than late last week, as he lobbed a ball up in triple coverage to Engram with under two minutes left in a one-score game.
Touchdown.
The volume is going to be as good as any player at the position, though I do worry about efficiency moving forward given the number of injuries in the passing game around him. The Eagles own the fourth-lowest opponent passer rating this season when targeting tight ends, and that makes this a difficult matchup, though the sheer number of projectable opportunities is too much to ignore.
If you’re fading Engram, it’s in DFS and not in any sort of season-long format.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles Insights
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: After winning seven of eight games in the middle of last season, Jacksonville is 3-11 in the 14 games since
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 26.6% from a season ago.
Offense: The Jags have won the time of possession battle just once (Week 7 vs. Patriots). Last week was the fourth time they failed to have the ball for even 27 minutes this season.
Defense: Last week, Jacksonville held the Packers out of the end zone on four red zone trips (66.7%, their rate in Weeks 1-7: 21.7%).
Fantasy: Tank Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help – in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact.
Betting: The Jags are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and each of their past four failures to cover came by at least 11.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: No offensive line allows pressure more often when not blitzed than the Eagles (44.1%, league average: 31.6%).
QB: The Eagles have won three straight games – in those games, Jalen Hurts has -2 red zone passing yards.
Offense: From 2022-23, only the Cowboys, Chiefs, and 49ers scored more first-quarter points than the Eagles. This season, Philadelphia has yet to score in the first 15 minutes. If you’re curious, their lowest-scoring season for first-quarter points over the past 20 years came in 2012 (31 points).
Defense: The Eagles hadn’t allowed an opponent to convert over 46.2% of their third downs through seven weeks. In Week 8, the Bengals went 10-of-13 (76.9%), though part of that can be attributed to a one-sided game (20-point win).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts had his 13th game with multiple rushing touchdowns since 2021, the most in the league (Derrick Henry ranks second with 11 and James Conner third with seven over that stretch).
Betting: After Halloween, since 2020, the Eagles are 12-8-1 ATS (60%) at home and 4-16 ATS (20%) on the road. They head on the road for three of their next four after this game.