The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 . Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Lawrence has laid some breadcrumbs of late, and that’s good to see.
Average passer rating:
- Weeks 2-4: 75.4
- Weeks 5-7: 110.9
The problem is that, given his early season struggles, we need a lot more than breadcrumbs to get him into the QB1 conversation. Lawrence still isn’t looking to run, and that has him without a top-10 finish in 2024 (45 rush yards against the Browns in Week 2; 42 total since).
The weapons are on this roster for him to have spike weeks, and maybe you guess right in a DFS setting, but for season-long, there’s no reason to dig this deep. Lawrence has failed to throw multiple TD passes in the majority of his starts this season. He has also failed to complete 20 passes in the majority of his starts, leaving him without quality or quantity.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Mr. Cartavious Bigsby has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in two of his past three games and has at least 90 rushing yards in three of his past four, a stretch that includes a pair of top-10 finishes at the position.
With Travis Etienne Jr. battling a hamstring injury, Bigsby projects as the leading ball carrier against a run defense that allows the third most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season. Joe Mixon hung 26.4 fantasy points on these Packers a week ago, the fifth time in seven weeks an RB has cleared 15 PPR points.
Jacksonville has one path to keep this game close. I’d have Bigsby ranked as a top-15 play if the game flow wasn’t a concern. However, even as a 4.5-point home underdog, he settles comfortably inside of my top 20.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
It hasn’t been a fun first seven weeks if you ponied up for Etienne during the summer. Across most sites, his ADP landed in the top 10 at the position. Hopefully, the rest of your team has picked up the slack.
After flirting with 1,500 scrimmage yards last season and scoring 12 times, Etienne doesn’t have a finish better than RB20 this season, has seen his second-year backup thrive, and is now dealing with a soft tissue injury.
Awesome.
I’d love to tell you it gets better moving forward, but I’m not sure I believe it. Even if he proves healthy and wins his lead role back (two very big “ifs” at this point), are we sure that the RB1 in Jacksonville is going to matter by the time that happens?
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 15: vs. New York Jets
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
There are three touch matchups in there, and the one advantageous spot (Week 16) could come with your season on the line, asking you to trust a player you theoretically haven’t played for weeks. Heck, you can’t even catch the second Colts matchup, an obviously a good spot, until Week 18 when most leagues are done.
You’ll have to track Etienne’s hamstring throughout this week, but more for the value of Tank Bigbsy than anything. Etienne is firmly in the need-to-see-it-before-believing-it tier, along with about a dozen running backs that are putting our collective minds in a pretzel.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Isn’t Thomas essentially doing what we hoped Marvin Harrison Jr. would do? He’s being used at all three levels and earning targets at an increasingly impressive rate. In Week 7, Thomas had a pair of six-point catches in the first half and has at least one such play in five of seven games.
The rookie now has three top-10 finishes over his past four games; based on that graphic, he can get even better. This Green Bay defense has been making big plays all season, though there is some risk/reward in their profile. On the flip side of the turnovers they’ve forced is the second-highest touchdown rate allowed on deep passes (13.2% of attempts).
Brian Thomas Jr. is the 1st player with 500+ rec yds on 30 or fewer receptions through 7 career games since Randy Moss in 1998pic.twitter.com/rFXfVQrnko
— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) October 20, 2024
Through seven weeks, seven times has a receiver scored over 15 PPR points against the Packers. Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown are on that list, but so are Jordan Whittington and Alec Pierce, a range of players that tells me that it is more a result of how this defense functions than a result of talent mismatches.
Thomas has the upside of a top-10 receiver and the floor of a player ranked in the 30s — that equation is going to result in a WR2 ranking for me most weeks, and this matchup is no different.
Christian Kirk, WR
We entered this season with reasonable expectations for the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence has been up-and-down throughout his NFL career up to this point, but at the very least, we thought we knew what to expect from their pass-catching corps: Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were going to be the big-play threats who lacked consistency, while Kirk and Evan Engram offered weekly stability at the cost of a ceiling like what those two have access to.
As it turns out, we had it completely backward when it came to Thomas and Kirk. While the rookie has been a sensation, Kirk has been something of a random number generator.
He has a pair of WR2 finishes, commanding 22 targets across those games. But he also has four weeks where he hasn’t been a top-50 receiver, three of which saw him catch just a single pass (one catch on three targets for 24 yards against the Patriots last weekend in London).
As expected, he’s the full-time slot man in this offense (77.8%), and Lawrence has lacked consistency in calling upon that role. My hope is that better (or at least more consistent) days are ahead, but I’m not so sure it starts this week against a Packers defense that ranks eighth or better in yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and passer rating when opponents throw to the slot against them.
Jauan Jennings and Jalen McMillan are two receivers who saw their projected usage spike over the past seven days due to injuries ahead of them. If you need a reference point, I’d play both of them over Kirk this week.
Gabe Davis, WR
If you chased the Week 6 Davis stat line (5-45-2 against the Bears, fantasy’s WR7 for the week) into Week 7 against the Patriots, you got exactly what you deserved.
One catch. 13 yards.
For the uninitiated, welcome to the Davis experience. This is what he does and exactly why drafting him with expectations above that of an emergency option is foolish. He’s a talented receiver, but this team has three pass catchers and ranks 24th in time of possession, an offense that isn’t in a position to support a sporadic receiver like Davis.
Week 7 was the third time in four games in which he failed to clear five targets. He’s been held under 50 yards in each of his past five contests. Against an optimistic Packers defense, Davis could break a long play, but by no means does that make starting him a responsible decision. Give me the receivers in Detroit or Tampa Bay that offer less upside but are being introduced to increased roles this weekend.
Evan Engram, TE
If only every injury recovery was as smooth as that of Engram. The star tight end suffered a hamstring injury while warming up for Week 2 and didn’t return to action until Week 6, but man has he returned in style.
In his two games back, Engram has caught all 15 of his targets and has seen a look on 30.6% of his routes, a rate that leaves his 2023 rate in the dust (22.6%, a season in which he caught 114 passes). We know he’s more than capable of getting open and serving as Trevor Lawrence’s safety valve, but the team has had no issues in scheming up looks to get him in a rhythm.
- Lawrence pass short left to Engram for eight yards
- Lawrence pass short right to Engram for 13 yards
That’s how Jacksonville opened Week 7, proof positive that they are looking to run their offense through their tight end. Engram is a top-five tight end for me this week and moving forward as this level of volume is unique at the position.
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars Game Insights
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers have won three straight games and are seeking their first four-game win streak since December 2022.
QB: Jordan Love has thrown multiple TD in eight straight games. That’s the fourth-longest streak by a QB age 25 or younger, behind Patrick Mahomes (14), Brett Favre (12), and Dan Marino (10).
Offense: The Packers are explosive, but since 2022, they have ranked 23rd in red zone offense (54.2% this season, ranking 18th behind the Panthers, Titans, and Jets).
Defense: Green Bay is allowing the fourth-lowest third-down completion percentage (46.7%) and has yet to allow a third-down touchdown pass.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs caught the first touchdown of his career on Sunday and now has at least four catches or 18 carries in all four games since Jordan Love returned.
Betting: The Packers beat the Rams 24-19 (closing total: 49.5) in Week 5, snapping a streak of six straight overs in Jordan Love road starts.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: This team returns from London to begin, without much question, their most difficult four-game straight of the season (vs. Packers, at Eagles, vs. Vikings, and at Lions).
QB: Trevor Lawrence has posted three straight passer ratings north of 90 on the heels of three straight under 90 (Jacksonville is 2-1 after an 0-4 start).
Offense: By EPA per game, this is the worst offense in the league (7.6% worse than the Panthers).
Defense: The Jaguars own the league’s worst red zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 78.3% of such drives.
Fantasy: Tank Bigsby has multiple rushing scores in two of his past three and at least 90 rushing yards in three of four. His role is trending toward that of a bellcow (Travis Etienne – hamstring), but with just one catch against his 67 carries this season is a ceiling capper.
Betting: In their three games before the London trip last season, the Jags were 1-2 ATS (average cover margin: -8.5 points). In their first three games back in the States, they went 3-0 ATS (average cover margin: +10.0 points).