This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features two teams — the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints — with a lot of talent on offense and tons of player prop bets to choose from.
But on a short week and with two quarterbacks playing through injuries, in particular, Trevor Lawrence (if he is active), which Jaguars vs. Saints player prop bets should you target?
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Top Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets To Target
Our team of betting experts gives out their favorite player prop bets for Jaguars vs. Saints on Thursday Night Football.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Travis Etienne Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 62.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +100
- First Touchdown Scorer: +550
Blewis: Training camp reports that Tank Bigsby could cut into Travis Etienne’s usage were greatly overstated, as the second-year player has accounted for nearly 82% of the Jaguars’ rushing attempts from running backs this season. In fact, Etienne is even leading the NFL in carries, so if you were able to get him at a discount in your fantasy league because of Bigsby’s presence, props to you.
But if we’re going to nitpick Etienne’s performance, we can point to his lack of explosiveness so far this season, as just 7% of his carries have gone for 10 or more yards.
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One reason for this could be the lack of help from his offensive line, as the Jaguars rank 30th in run-block win rate so far this season, and tonight, they’ll be going against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Let’s take the under on Etienne’s rushing yards — and you can get four yards of value at FanDuel.
Pick: Travis Etienne under 66.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: I’ve got a late addition to the card because the books didn’t give us a line until just this morning! Piggybacking off Brian’s analysis, I don’t see much room to run for any of the Jaguars. That includes Bigsby, who hasn’t carried the ball more than three times in a game since Week 1.
Pick: Tank Bigsby under 11.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Calvin Ridley Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 54.5 (Over -110/Under -125)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +185
- First Touchdown Scorer: +900
Blewis: Calvin Ridley has been inconsistent this season, to say the least. He has failed to record more than 40 receiving yards in four of six games this season, but in the two games he did, he went for over 100.
Despite his unpredictability, I think I have a good grasp on his outlook for tonight, and it doesn’t look great. His quarterback will likely be playing through a knee injury on a short week while on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Considering he’s not one of Lawrence’s preferred targets either, as he is third in target rate behind Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, I like my chances with the under here.
Pick: Calvin Ridley under 54.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Christian Kirk Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +240
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1200
Blewis: While Ridley’s usage has been pretty volatile so far this season, Christian Kirk’s has been relatively consistent since only having three targets in Week 1. Since then, he has averaged nine targets per game and leads the team in target share.
I would prefer to play the over on his receptions prop when that’s available, but in the meantime, I don’t mind taking the over on his receiving yards. He has cleared this number in all but one game since after Week 1, and that was in their win against the Colts last week, which was a blowout.
Pick: Christian Kirk over 51.5 receiving yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Derek Carr Player Props
- Passing Yards: 239.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +124/Under -160)
- Longest Completion: 36.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Blewis: One stat that might surprise people is that Derek Carr has been one of the most aggressive quarterbacks in throwing the ball downfield this season. According to PFF, Carr leads the NFL in pass attempts of at least 20 yards by 10 throws. As a result, two of Carr’s weapons — Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed — are getting a bunch of deep targets, as they rank first and sixth in targets of at least 20 yards this season.
With Carr’s tendency to attack downfield and having two very capable receivers in this area, I like his chances of connecting on at least one completion that goes for at least 37 yards. Especially when you consider Olave is due for some positive regression here, as only 22.2% of the deep passes thrown his way have been completed.
Pick: Derek Carr longest completion over 36.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Alvin Kamara Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 52.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
- Receiving Yards: 29.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -105
- First Touchdown Scorer: +500
Blewis: Although volume hasn’t been an issue for Alvin Kamara so far this season, his current pace of 17.33 carries per game would be a career-high. But while his usage in the running game has gone up, his efficiency has gone down, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and a career-low 1.2 yards after contact per rush.
Game script might be in his favor tonight, but Kamara will be going up against a Jaguars run defense that has been the second-best this season by success rate. Let’s take the under on his rushing yards total.
Pick: Alvin Kamara under 52.5 rushing yards (-140 at DraftKings)
Chris Olave Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 61.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Longest Reception: 22.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +185
- First Touchdown Scorer: +850
Soppe: The top target earner against the Jaguars this season has seen, on average, 26.1% of targets and scored in five of six games. If we are willing to label Derek Carr (shoulder) as reasonably healthy last week, Chris Olave has earned a 27.7% target share when his signal-caller is in good health. The Jags are the eighth-blitz-heaviest team in the league, a style of play that encourages quick decisions, and those quick decisions often are to the team’s alpha option.
Is there any question about who that man is in New Orleans these days?
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Olave’s aDOT is over 14 yards again this season, giving him big play potential if left in single coverage due to the blitz, but that’s not his only path to success. A quick hitter to him has the potential to turn into a monster gain, with the Jags missing 7.5 tackles per game (eighth-most).
Player Prop Bets: Chris Olave over 61.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel), Chris Olave anytime TD (+185 at DraftKings)