The Jacksonville Jaguars have their NFL playoff destiny in their own hands coming out of Thursday Night Football in Week 16. The changes in the fortunes of the Tennessee Titans have sent the Jaguars’ playoff odds plummeting to a point where they are now the betting favorite to win the AFC South.
Let’s examine the Jaguars’ chances of making the playoffs and how their remaining schedule needs to play out for them to head into the playoffs this season.
What Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Odds in 2022?
The news that Ryan Tannehill’s season is likely over means the Jaguars’ odds of making the playoffs look significantly different from earlier in the week. In many sportsbooks, the Jaguars come out of Thursday’s game as around a -175 favorite to win the AFC South.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jaguars’ chance of making the playoffs sit at 68%. Despite the Jaguars being one loss behind the Titans in the NFL standings, the two teams face off in Week 18, which very well could be for the division. Therefore, the Jaguars have their future in their own hands when it comes to the playoffs this season.
What Is the Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule?
The Jaguars are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Week 16 playoff picture. At 7-8 they remain behind the Titans at 7-7. They are also 1.5 games behind the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, who currently sit in the final two playoff spots at 8-6.
The game on Thursday Night Football made a big difference to the Jaguars’ playoff chances. Entering the game, FiveThirtyEight had them with a 54% chance. That has risen to just below 70% with the win and would have dropped down to around 40% had they lost to the Jets.
Even if the Jaguars were to lose their next game against the Houston Texans, they could feasibly still enter Week 18 with their future in their own hands. However, that would rely on the Titans also losing one of their next two games. If the Jaguars lose their next week and the Titans win both games, they would secure the division before Week 18.
MORE: Week 16 NFL Playoff Clinching Scenarios
As long as the Jaguars match the Titans’ results over the next two weeks, they will enter Week 18 with their future in their hands. It is worth noting that even if the Jaguars win the next two and the Titans lose their next two, then Week 18 still looks likely to be a winner-take-all matchup.
If the Titans beat the Jaguars in Week 18, and the two teams have the same record, it would come down to the NFL playoff tiebreakers to decide the division winner. If the Jaguars beat the Texans and lose to the Titans, they would be 3-3 in the division. Similarly, if the Titans lose to the Texans and Jaguars, they would be 3-3 in the division.
It would then come down to the best win percentage in common games. Regardless of the results in the next three weeks, the Titans have an unassailable lead in that tiebreaker. Therefore, the Jaguars need to match the Titans’ record at least and have beaten them twice to have the superior head-to-head record.