The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a tough season in 2024, but it potentially left them in a position to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Jaguars entered Sunday of Week 17 as one of five teams with three wins, but a win over the Tennessee Titans left them needing a lot of help if they plan to pick first overall.
Using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the scenarios for the Jaguars to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.
What Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Scenarios for the No. 1 Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
The Jaguars got what they needed in Week 17: the New York Giants’ win. However, the Jaguars also won to move to four wins, which left them a win ahead of four teams: the Giants, the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans, and the Cleveland Browns. The first pick always goes to the team with the lowest winning percentage, so the Jaguars need all four of those teams to join them at four wins.
If two teams are tied on winning percentage, the first NFL Draft tiebreaker for draft position is strength of schedule (SOS), with the team with the lowest SOS picking higher. The Jaguars are positioned quite nicely in terms of SOS, with the second lowest among four-win teams (0.472). Only the New England Patriots have a lower SOS as of the end of the 4 p.m. slate of games (0.469).
The Jaguars are currently fifth in the NFL Draft order, behind the four teams with three wins. They are currently the best-placed of the four-win teams to pick first overall if the four ahead of them were all to win. Behind the Jaguars are the New York Jets (0.502), the Carolina Panthers (0.498), the Las Vegas Raiders (0.546), and the Chicago Bears (0.552).
The Jaguars’ path to the No. 1 pick is pretty clear-cut at this point. They need the Patriots, Titans, Browns, and Giants to all get to four wins. That would essentially leave it as a straight fight between them and New England, as they are the only teams that can finish with an SOS below 0.481.
The Jaguars need to have a lower SOS than the Patriots if both finish on four wins. The Jaguars beat the Patriots earlier this season, and the first tiebreaker after SOS is the head-to-head record. That makes the path for the Jaguars clear: lose in Week 18 and have the Patriots, Titans, Browns, and Giants get to four wins. Then it comes down to SOS, which is out of their control, so all they can do is sit and wait at that point.